I recently came across an interesting perspective—the author of "Currency Wars" made a bold prediction in an interview: by 2026, gold will rise to $10,000 per ounce, and silver might even surge to $200. At first glance, it sounds exaggerated, but upon closer examination of his logic, it’s not entirely baseless.

The core support for this view rests on two main points: endless central bank gold purchases worldwide, and the inability of precious metal mining capacities to keep up. These two factors have become almost an ironclad rule, unlikely to reverse suddenly. Looking at historical gold purchase data, central banks’ appetite is growing larger and larger, and this long-term demand truly solidifies gold’s fundamental position.

However, when it comes to explosive price increases, the issue might not lie in these conventional factors. Where is the key change? The answer becomes clear when observing institutional movements—major players like sovereign wealth funds and university endowment funds are beginning to reconsider their asset allocations. Previously, gold might have only accounted for 5% or 10% of a portfolio; now, it could be elevated to a core strategic position. This shift in demand is not insignificant.

More importantly, the geopolitical landscape plays a crucial role. Recently, Western countries have considered freezing certain foreign exchange reserves of some nations—directly hitting at the core of national interests. Do you think being part of the dollar system guarantees safety? The reality is, assets can be frozen at any time. This has caused global sovereign wealth managers to start questioning, seeking a risk-free, non-sovereign liability asset—gold has become the prime candidate.

This shift is not driven by one or two countries but is a systemic trend. Once this logical chain is activated, the wave of central bank and sovereign-level gold buying could reach unprecedented scales—not just slow, steady growth, but potentially an accelerating process.

Returning to the $10,000 target, it’s not simply derived from inflation calculations; it’s based on the ongoing deep restructuring of the global order and the trust in monetary systems. Gold is evolving from a traditional cyclical commodity into a core tool for hedging global systemic risks, avoiding sovereign credit risks, and responding to changes in the international monetary landscape.

If this outlook materializes, the precious metals market may undergo a complete revaluation. It feels like this gold narrative has already transcended its commodity attributes and entered the realm of geopolitical significance.