Can Amazon Stock Price Continue Its 2024 Winning Streak Into 2025?

Amazon’s remarkable performance in 2024—a 44% gain versus the S&P 500’s 23%—wasn’t just luck. For investors willing to dig deeper into the numbers, the trajectory was predictable. While Amazon stock has experienced numerous 25%+ pullbacks over two decades, it has never recorded a year-over-year revenue decline. The disconnect between consistent sales growth and volatile stock prices reveals something crucial: operating income, not top-line revenue, drives Amazon’s valuation.

The Operating Income Story Behind Amazon Stock Price Surge

The relationship between operating income and Amazon stock price shows a clear directional pattern. When profitability expands, the stock follows. This year validated that thesis spectacularly. Through three quarters of 2024, Amazon generated $47 billion in operating income, with projections pointing to approximately $63 billion for the full year—an all-time record. This compares to $37 billion in 2023, representing a 70% increase.

This explosion in profits stems from Amazon’s highest-margin businesses firing on all cylinders. AWS achieved 19% revenue growth, subscription services expanded 11%, and digital advertising surged 19%. Each represents a double-digit expansion in cash-generative segments. The international division alone swung from $10 billion in losses (2022-2023 combined) to $2 billion in operating profits during the first nine months of 2024—a remarkable reversal powered by advertising momentum.

What’s Fueling Further Growth in 2025

The tailwinds appear far from exhausted. Enterprise adoption of artificial intelligence continues accelerating cloud computing demand. Companies are rushing to AWS to deploy AI infrastructure, a trend unlikely to decelerate. Meanwhile, Amazon’s advertising business benefits from the growing appeal of shopping directly on the platform, reducing reliance on third-party marketplaces.

Subscriber expansion also shows signs of momentum. Economic pressures drive consumers toward the value proposition of Prime membership, creating a retention moat. These three pillars—cloud infrastructure, digital ads, and memberships—aren’t experiencing temporary spikes. They represent structural shifts in how businesses operate and consumers shop.

The Risk Factors Nobody’s Discussing

However, Amazon stock price forecasts come with caveats. First, economic turbulence could prompt enterprise customers to temporarily reduce AWS spending or advertisers to slash budgets. While unlikely, this represents a tangible threat to the operating income trajectory.

Second, Amazon’s management prioritizes long-term positioning over quarterly earnings. The company might accelerate investments in infrastructure, R&D, or emerging initiatives in 2025, deliberately pressuring margins despite robust revenue. This strategic choice could disappoint growth-focused investors expecting another breakout year.

Third, time horizon matters. A single calendar year provides insufficient data to evaluate any stock’s potential. Market sentiment drives prices over short intervals, creating noise and misdirection. Investors should contemplate Amazon’s five-year outlook, not just 2025 performance. The stock may consolidate before climbing further, and that’s normal.

The Takeaway

Given Amazon’s projected all-time operating income records and the durability of its growth drivers, further all-time highs seem probable in 2025. Yet probabilities aren’t certainties. Macro headwinds, management spending decisions, or investor sentiment shifts could derail the rally. The most prudent approach: focus on the company’s long-term cash-generation potential rather than monthly stock price movements. For patient capital, Amazon remains positioned to deliver outsized returns over the next five years, even if 2025 delivers a more modest gain than 2024’s 44% appreciation.