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Recently, a major move in the crypto world has been dominating headlines, directly impacting the upcoming market trend. It’s essential to have a thorough discussion— the largest Bitcoin options expiration in history is approaching, with a total volume of up to $23.7 billion. What does this expiration mean? In one core sentence: the chain of constraints that has kept prices tightly locked between $85,000 and $90,000 over the past few weeks is about to be shattered.
Why do I say that? The market has been like a spring pushed to its limit, with prices tightly confined. When the expiration arrives, the constraints will break, and the spring’s rebound force should not be underestimated.
The evidence is right in front of us. This morning, a leading exchange’s USDT trading pair provided a preview— the price suddenly plunged from $87,000 to $24,000, then sharply rebounded. It was a false alarm, but it precisely reflects that market depth remains insufficient, and even slight disturbances can cause violent fluctuations.
The real test of liquidity will only begin after the expiration.
Looking ahead, once market makers’ buy and sell pressures for hedging are released, the true market picture will emerge. Currently, technical indicators are showing signs of bullish divergence, with selling pressure clearly waning. This is not a coincidence but a sign that the market is gearing up for the next phase.
Here are three practical tips:
**First, manage risk carefully.** In the hours to a day after the expiration, volatility could be beyond expectations. It’s best to avoid high-leverage contracts during this period to prevent becoming cannon fodder for market swings.
**Second, focus on support levels.** The $85,000 to $88,000 range is a critical line of defense. Whether prices can hold here will directly determine the short-term strength or weakness, so continuous monitoring is essential.
**Third, consider the long-term logic.** This massive options expiration itself signals that the market depth is sufficient and institutional participation is already high. After short-term technical fluctuations, the market rhythm will return to macroeconomic fundamentals and capital inflows.
This expiration is not just an ordinary technical milestone; it could be a key watershed in 2025 or a signal for a new trend in 2026. Whether it’s a mule or a horse, the true direction will be revealed after 4 PM. The market is constantly changing, and staying in sync with the rhythm is more important than anything else.