#通货膨胀 The Federal Reserve is now truly divided internally. The 9:3 voting result looks easy, but in reality, the committee members' attitudes towards inflation vary wildly—Goolsbee prefers to wait for more data, Schmied believes inflation is still too high, and Powell is worried about stagflation risks. This situation reminds me of the worst-case scenario when copying trades: the main trader's strategic logic begins to become blurry.

What’s even more concerning is that only one rate cut is expected next year, whereas the market previously anticipated more than two. The degree of hawkishness is clear to everyone. The paper tiger of inflation has still not been fully tamed, tariff risks are still hanging over us, and commodity inflation might only peak in the first quarter of next year— in other words, the first half of 2025 will still be a high-inflation environment.

This directly impacts my copy trading strategy. Under the combination of high inflation and high interest rates, aggressive traders' profit curves will be very volatile, with large drawdowns. I am currently reassessing the copy trading pool, leaning towards those with strict risk control and who are accustomed to finding rhythm amid volatility—compared to pursuing absolute returns, stability has become more valuable. For those with high risk appetite, it’s advisable to moderately reduce their position sizes in such traders.

The term stagflation risk appearing in official statements indicates that the Fed is also starting to take this worst-case scenario seriously. History shows that no one wants to see a replay of the chaos of the 1970s. Let’s wait and see how Powell responds next year.