#ETF与衍生品 Seeing Cathie Wood reframe the three main pillars of this cycle, I have a feeling of witnessing history repeat itself. During the 2017 market rally, we also experienced a similar institutional entry narrative, but back then, the distinctions were not as clear.

Bitcoin's positioning as the "gateway to the global monetary system" essentially makes it the easiest asset for institutions to target—liquidity is deepest, and risks are most controllable. The flash crash on October 11 precisely validated this point; BTC was sold off the hardest, yet due to ample liquidity, it was the first to stabilize. My years of experience tell me that in assets with the strongest liquidity, institutional entry often shows the earliest signs.

What's even more interesting is the ETF angle. If giants like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America truly enter the market, they won't just rush into exchanges like retail investors; they'll go through regulated channels like ETFs. This is nothing new—I saw this script back in 2021, just back then, fewer mainstream financial institutions were involved. If this time it actually happens, it means the cycle's quality will be entirely different.

Ethereum is positioned as the "institutional infrastructure layer," while Solana targets "consumer applications." This differentiated layout is quite fascinating. Historically, successful tech platforms tend to be segmented and positioned this way. From 2015 to now, I've watched Ethereum go from being heavily criticized to becoming infrastructure, and I understand how long such a transformation takes.

The key is, the judgment that this cycle has bottomed out still depends on the institutional moves in the next two weeks. Past experience shows that the true bottom often appears exactly when the "market believes it has already bottomed."