#比特币价格走势 Seeing the predicted probability of ten million dollars on Polymarket drop from previous highs to 25%, I have a familiar feeling. This is not the first time.

I still remember the late 2017 bull run, when everyone was shouting target prices of ten thousand or even twenty thousand dollars. I have seen too many investors go all-in during that frenzy, only to watch their digital assets shrink bit by bit during the long bear market of 2018. History never repeats exactly, but it often rhymes.

What’s different this time is that market participants are clearly more mature now. Prediction markets like Polymarket can reflect real probabilities more accurately, rather than just sentiment. A 25% chance indicates the market isn’t completely bearish; rather, optimistic sentiment is waning — which is a sign of rationality returning.

The key question is whether this probability decline is just a deep correction or a healthy risk re-pricing. I tend to believe it’s the latter. Bitcoin’s long-term trend remains unchanged; only short-term expectations are more cautious. Those who have experienced multiple cycles understand that investors who can stay patient during the coldest market times are often the final winners. When everyone is debating whether to break through ten thousand dollars, the real opportunity might already be elsewhere.