Recently, the trend of PAXG (Paxos Gold) has attracted market attention. From a technical perspective, this wave of decline has entered an acceleration phase, and several key signals are worth careful analysis.

First is the movement of main funds. On-chain monitoring data shows that around 7:55 AM on the 29th, there was a clear sign of main funds withdrawing, perfectly avoiding the subsequent rapid decline. This operation indicates that large investors had already positioned themselves before the risk was released, which is often a precursor to accelerated decline.

Next, look at technical indicators. RSI(6) has already fallen to 11.68, which is an extremely oversold level. Historical data shows that when reaching this level, it usually means market sentiment is close to collapse, but it does not necessarily indicate that a bottom has formed. On the contrary, such extreme readings are often accompanied by continued panic selling.

From the perspective of market participants, the short positions of some leading compliant platforms and institutions have approached 90%. What does this data indicate? It shows that smart money and institutional investors are highly aligned—they are expressing their views on this price level through actual actions.

Even more exaggerated is the situation in the leverage market. The long-short liquidation ratio within 12 hours exceeded 200:1, meaning that the scale of long positions being liquidated far exceeds that of shorts. Every decline is accompanied by a large number of long positions being wiped out, creating a vicious cycle—decline leads to liquidation, which further accelerates the decline.

From these dimensions, when main funds withdraw in advance, technical indicators reach extreme zones, institutional attitudes are highly aligned, and leverage liquidations reinforce each other, the market has entered a special state. At this point, the choices become particularly critical.

Based on the current technical pattern and market structure, the short-term target range is around $4,330 to $4,270. This estimate is based on multiple technical and liquidity analyses.

In such a market environment, the most important thing is to stay clear-headed. Panic is often the biggest enemy, and rational risk management is the foundation of trading. Every market fluctuation creates opportunities, but these opportunities only favor traders who are well-prepared.