Last night, the foreign markets experienced a wave of sharp declines, directly blaming today’s Asian markets. The three major US stock indices all turned red—Dow down 0.51%, Nasdaq down 0.5%, S&P 500 down 0.35%. The decline doesn’t seem large, but the scene in precious metals was truly outrageous. Spot silver surged by 6% during trading, only to be hammered down to a plunge of 10%, with a daily fluctuation exceeding 15%; gold dropped nearly 5%, while platinum and palladium fared even worse, falling over 14%. This crash wasn’t a natural correction but was caused by CME suddenly raising margin requirements, forcing leveraged speculators out of the market. Some warned earlier that precious metals were rising too fast, with liquidity insufficient to support the surge, and this time it finally came true.

However, crude oil held up relatively well, with WTI rising 1.92%, possibly providing some support to today’s energy sector. But honestly, relying on a single oil price increase isn’t enough to sustain the entire market. Chinese concept stocks are also having a tough time; the China concept index fell 0.67%, with Alibaba and Xpeng both plunging over 2%, indicating that foreign capital remains somewhat cautious about us.

Looking back at the A-shares market itself. The Shanghai Composite index has now risen for nine consecutive days. Just hearing this number sounds impressive, but behind it are all tricks. Financials and real estate stocks are desperately trying to lift the index, but retail investors have long been voting with their feet—individual stocks have experienced large-scale declines for two consecutive days, with a huge loss effect, especially in Shenzhen market where the selling is the fiercest. Simply put: the index looks like it’s rising, but fewer and fewer are willing to take the risk. Trading volume shows no signs of frenzy; overall sentiment remains somewhat stable, but it already feels a bit hollow.

This is the core issue—after nine days of gains, the market faces significant technical correction pressure. Large funds are already playing the "high-low switching" game, smashing stocks that have surged too rapidly and replacing them with those still at the bottom. The FTSE A50 futures index fell slightly by 0.21% last night, which indicates that foreign investors are not optimistic about the A-shares opening today.

So, what’s likely to happen today? A probable opening gap down. The sudden plunge in precious metals will directly impact A-shares related to gold and silver concepts, which will definitely be the hardest-hit sectors today. Don’t be fooled by the fact that gold prices didn’t fall the most—those 5% drops could lead to gold concept stocks hitting the limit down. Energy stocks might have some defensive support from rising oil prices, but that alone can’t sustain the entire market.

The early trading session will likely be volatile and downward. After nine days of gains, the market needs a technical correction to digest the gains, especially with such moderate trading volume. It might replicate the pattern from a couple of days ago—small decline in the index, with broad-based adjustments in individual stocks. But here’s a key point: the risk is actually localized. Those stocks that have already soared—hot-topic stocks, high-flying tech, overhyped resource stocks—will fall the hardest. Conversely, blue-chip stocks that have been surviving at the bottom—such as infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, and consumer defensive sectors—will have better resilience.

The key still depends on trading volume. If early volume remains lackluster, the correction might be limited. At this point, closely monitor the "high-low switching" movements of big funds—if low-priced sectors like power and healthcare suddenly become active, it indicates the market is shifting into defensive mode, which is actually a signal.

In summary: don’t chase the highs or sell in panic now. External markets have given reasons for A-shares to decline, but our market sentiment remains stable and hasn’t reached a systemic risk level yet. Expect a high probability of choppy trading and closing lower today, with the Shanghai Composite testing the support level of the nine-day rally. The key word for trading is patience. Learn to master "high-low switching," and don’t be scared by the red and green of the index, because individual stocks have already adjusted ahead of the index.

The biggest risk in investing is being hostage to short-term fluctuations. The plunge in precious metals serves as a reminder: after a sharp rise often comes a sharp fall, and latecomers to the rally are always the cannon fodder. The same logic applies to stocks. Don’t chase those stocks that have already gone crazy; wait for low-position opportunities. Steady and disciplined investing is the way to truly beat the rhythm.