机构主导下的比特币周期：价格承压与基本面脱节

2025-12-30 00:46:17

【区块律动】最近有分析师在报告里提到，比特币可能步入所谓的「加密寒冬」早期阶段。这个判断基于历史上的四年周期规律——按这个逻辑，未来几个月价格可能会一直承压，甚至有可能触及75000美元这个价位。

但这轮调整和以前不太一样。从前的下跌往往伴随大规模清算、系统性风险，现在不一定。原因很直白：市场已经被机构牵着走了，散户的影响力大不如前。

这样带来一个有意思的现象——代币价格和底层项目的真实进展，两者的差距越来越大。你看DeFi、资产代币化、区块链基础设施这些赛道，都能明显感受到这种脱节。价格跌得凶，但技术和生态的建设并没停。

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MEVHunter

· 8h ago

nah this 4yr cycle cope is just institutional narrative building... they're literally price-suppressing while accumulating on the low. notice how retail got liquidated but protocol development hitting new milestones? that's the tell right there.

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GasFeeLover

· 8h ago

The four-year cycle theory is back again. This time, it's different, right? Institutions are playing by a different set of rules. This is how institutions take over—prices are fake, but development is real, the foundation is still there. 75,000? Just wait. Anyway, no one in the tech stack has stopped working. Retail investors have already been tied up for a long time. Now just watch the show. The disconnect between price and progress is too outrageous. DeFi is booming, but the coin price keeps falling—what a irony.

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SilentAlpha

· 8h ago

The four-year cycle is outdated; institutions are now the market manipulators. They can push or pull at will. After institutions finish squeezing retail investors, it will be their turn to compete against each other. Interesting. Prices may fall, but the ecosystem is still being built. That's the real reason to be long-term optimistic. If 75,000 really drops, I'll buy the dip immediately. Anyway, the technology hasn't changed.

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MysteryBoxBuster

· 8h ago

Oh no, the four-year cycle is back again, and it always says the same thing every time. Institutions buy the dip and retail investors take the fall, the game hasn't changed. I believe in DeFi development, but when prices fall, who cares about the fundamentals?

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airdrop_whisperer

· 8h ago

The four-year cycle is outdated; now that institutions hold all the power, how can prices still follow the old rules? Technology is advancing, but prices are locked, and retail investors can only watch passively. 75,000? I don't know if it can drop that low; anyway, I no longer believe in the cycle theory. There are quite a few activities in DeFi, but honestly, no one cares because the price speaks for itself. Under institutional control, there are basically no liquidations; instead, it’s become even more bizarre.

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