2025-12-30 01:20:41

Every year during the New Year’s Eve moment, while traditional financial markets go into rest, the crypto world is quietly surging. This seemingly ordinary date hides many intriguing market logics behind it.

Looking at data from the past five years — Bitcoin has a 70% chance of significant volatility within three days before and after New Year’s Day, with an average fluctuation of up to 8.5%. This is far from a coincidence. In 2017, Bitcoin surged 12% within three days of New Year’s; by 2022, it plummeted 9.3% during the same period. This stark contrast itself speaks volumes.

Why does this happen? The logic is actually simple. When New Year’s holiday arrives, traditional financial institutions collectively take a break, and the efficiency of fiat currency inflows and outflows drops sharply, causing market liquidity to tighten suddenly. It’s like giving big players an opportunity — they only need to deploy relatively small chips to create astonishing price swings in this “liquidity trough.” Meanwhile, retail investors are either on vacation or distracted by family matters, greatly reducing market attention, which amplifies the volatility effect.

In plain terms, it’s just how it is. Liquidity on the supply side fractures, demand-side attention disperses, and big players seize the opportunity. The crypto market operates 24/7, but the logic behind this special time period isn’t much different from traditional finance rules.

BTC-2.01%

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BlockchainFries

· 7h ago

Big whales are taking advantage of the holiday to harvest profits, while we retail investors are still at home having meals.

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RugPullAlarm

· 7h ago

70% probability? I actually want to see how this data is calculated. Maybe they just found a few matching years and forced it in. Large investors dumping chips to create waves. To put it nicely, it's really a problem of excessive capital concentration. They should really investigate the flow of those suspicious addresses. Holiday retail investors getting chopped for leek farming is indeed due to the holiday, but the real question is whether there are any abnormal withdrawals from the exchange. That’s the true signal before a run.

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TokenTaxonomist

· 7h ago

actually, per my analysis... that 70% probability figure needs scrutiny. let me pull up my spreadsheet real quick because something doesn't add up taxonomically here

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ZKSherlock

· 8h ago

actually... the whole "liquidity vacuum" framing here is kinda missing the information-theoretic part, yeah? like, 70% probability over five years isn't even statistically significant when you factor in sampling bias. people just remember the dramatic moves and forget the flat ones, that's selection bias 101.

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DecentralizedElder

· 8h ago

Oh no, are we about to get cut again? --- Wait, 12% increase in 2017, 9% decrease in 2022, why are these fluctuations so predictable? Feels like the big players have already marked the dates. --- The term "liquidity vacuum" just sounds unpleasant. Basically, it's retail investors on vacation while the big players cut the leeks. --- I'm used to it. On New Year's Day, I still keep an eye on my phone and don't dare to sleep, just waiting to buy the dip or cut losses. --- Analyzing it like this, I do feel a bit scared. It seems like Bitcoin is just two words: cutting leeks. --- Nah, wait a minute, your logic has a problem. When liquidity tightens, big players wouldn't dare to throw money around recklessly. How could they still create waves? --- So this New Year's Day, I withdrew my funds early. Whoever wants to play, let them play. Anyway, I don't believe in a 70% probability. --- It's already 2024, and you're still talking about 2017 data? The market has already changed long ago.

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