#ETF与衍生品 Seeing Hyperliquid's market share drop from 80% to 20%, my first reaction isn't panic but caution — the story behind this is worth a deep dive.

Many people see the sharp decline in market share and start to pessimistically talk down, but I have to say, the logic behind this decline is actually quite clear and typical. Hyperliquid shifted from a purely B2C product-oriented approach to a B2B infrastructure model, which inevitably leads to short-term losses. Competitors seized this window to rapidly expand their territory, and platforms like Lighter are still siphoning users during the points season. Those traffic flows are essentially "employed liquidity" — once the TGE ends, a large number of users will withdraw.

What should we really be cautious about? It's the derivative platforms that seem to be thriving but are often built on false prosperity through incentives. I've seen too many such tricks in this space — attracting traders with points and airdrops, only for their market share to plummet after launch, leaving investors with nothing. Derivatives inherently carry high leverage risk, and if a platform's liquidity depends entirely on incentives, it’s worth considering carefully.

Can Hyperliquid's HIP-3 and Builder Codes turn things around? From a long-term perspective, I remain cautious. The logic behind this model is sound, but the execution cycle will be long, and third-party developers' distribution capabilities are far inferior to the core team. In the short term, when trading on such derivative platforms, it's crucial to look at the true composition of liquidity — whether it comes from genuine demand or is driven by incentives. Staying alive in this track is a hundred times more important than making quick money.