#Galaxy Research: 2025 Was Not a Waste, the True Crypto Turning Point Is in 2026

As expected, Bitcoin at the end of 2025 nearly returned to its early-year levels.
This is not a failure, but a high-intensity "re-pricing year."
The first 10 months were a genuine bull market:
Regulatory easing, #ETF attracting capital, explosive on-chain activity, BTC surged to a historic high of $126,000 in October.
But after the peak, the market did not continue to accelerate; instead, it entered—
Rotation, deleveraging, revaluation, restructuring.
Macroeconomic expectations fluctuated, narratives shifted, leverage was liquidated, large holders reduced positions,
Prices retreated, sentiment cooled, and by December #BTC , it returned to around $90,000.
It may seem like "no profit was made,"
but 2025 accomplished something more important:
👉 The true institutional infrastructure began to take shape.
Galaxy's conclusion is clear:
2025 is a paving year; 2026 is the year to take off.
One, Bitcoin: More like gold than high-volatility speculation
Galaxy’s core judgment on BTC is "calm":
2026 may be quite flat,
But around 2027, a target of $250,000 is visible.
The options market has already signaled:
👉 BTC’s long-term volatility is structurally decreasing.
Implied volatility of put options is starting to exceed that of call options.
This is a typical feature of "mature macro assets,"
Similar to gold, interest rates, commodities.
In a nutshell:
Bitcoin is transitioning from a "growth asset" to a "currency asset."
When institutional access + loose monetary environment combine,
BTC’s role will increasingly resemble—
A value hedge tool outside the dollar system.
Two, Core changes in public chains: no longer "neutral," but start "profiting"
In 2026, there will be a fundamental shift in the public chain world:
👉 From "Fat Protocol" to "Fat App."
Key signals:
Application layer revenue / network layer revenue will double,
L1 will actively embed "profitable applications,"
Directing cash flow toward native tokens.
What does this mean?
👉 Public chains that "only charge gas and do not create value" will be abandoned by the market.
Who can internalize transactions, stablecoins, DeFi, AI reasoning
Directly as protocol income,
Will be the ones to survive the next round.
Three, Enterprise blockchain no longer in pilot stage, but directly for settlement
Galaxy offers a very aggressive but reasonable prediction:
By 2026, at least one Fortune 500 company
Will run a "branded enterprise L1,"
Handling over $1 billion in real economic settlements.
The focus is not "private chain vs. public chain,"
But clear division of labor:
Enterprise L1: issuance, compliance, settlement,
Public chain: liquidity, collateral, price discovery, DeFi.
This is the true on-chain form of traditional finance,
Not playing with NFTs or marketing experiments.
Four, Stablecoins: Already won, just that everyone hasn't realized yet
Some direct data conclusions:
Stablecoin trading volume has already surpassed Visa,
Approaching ACH (U.S. clearing system),
By 2026: Stablecoins > ACH, a high-probability event.
What will happen next is not "more issuance,"
But—
👉 Stablecoins will rapidly consolidate, leaving only 1–2 mainstream systems.
It’s not about technology,
But about: distribution capability + banking/payment access.
Stablecoins are becoming
The "underlying pipeline" of payment systems,
Rather than just a crypto product.
Five, The real growth point of DeFi is not "returns," but "structure"
Galaxy’s assessment of DeFi is very realistic:
DEX spot share → 25%+
Crypto collateral loan balance → $90 billion,
Stablecoin lending rates → long-term below 10%,
DAOs are starting to use prediction markets (futarchy) to directly manage funds.
This means:
👉 DeFi is shifting from a "high-risk arbitrage playground,"
👉 to a "financial module usable by institutions."
Not sexy, but sustainable.
Six, Prediction markets, privacy, AI: underestimated three hidden trends
Three easily overlooked but highly likely to explode:
1️⃣ Prediction markets
Weekly trading volume exceeds $1.5 billion,
Gradually becoming an "information pricing layer."
2️⃣ Privacy assets
Total market cap > $100 billion,
As funds grow larger, "privacy" shifts from an ideal to a necessity.
3️⃣ AI × on-chain payments
AI agents for automatic trading and settlement,
On-chain payments are no longer "for humans," but "for machines."
Final summary of Galaxy’s 2026 outlook:
2025 is the year to squeeze the bubble dry,
2026 is the year to streamline the structure.
Bitcoin is becoming "stable,"
Public chains are becoming "realistic,"
Stablecoins are becoming "infrastructure,"
DeFi is becoming "financial engineering,"
AI is becoming "real users."
If you are still waiting for
"the next retail sentiment explosion,"
you might miss this round of real big money.
Because this round, institutions are quietly building systems.