#加密资产ETF十月关键对决 Gold daily chart closes lower, short-term correction intensifies—Trading Strategy Overview

Yesterday, international gold showed a very aggressive move. Starting at 4538.33, it briefly surged to 4550.19, then dropped to 4300.58, and finally closed at 4325.22, leaving a large bearish candle. This candle clearly indicates that the bulls are losing momentum.

On the fundamental side, several signals are worth noting. First, U.S. November existing home sales increased by 3.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, reaching a new high since February 2023—this suggests a warming housing market sentiment. Market risk appetite is rising, naturally weakening gold’s safe-haven appeal. Second, CME’s FedWatch Tool shows an 83.9% probability of maintaining current rates in January next year, and only a 45.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut in March. The rate cut expectations have been pushed back, which is unfavorable for gold prices. Looking at the world’s largest gold ETF—SPDR Gold Trust—the holdings increased by 0.86 tons to 1071.99 tons, indicating ongoing long-term demand, but short-term speculative funds are taking profits, creating pressure.

From a technical perspective: after breaking below short-term support, gold stabilized near the 20-day moving average. RSI has moved out of the overbought zone, reinforcing a potential top signal. After breaking below the 60-day moving average, the moving averages turned bearish, and RSI is in oversold territory. This suggests a possible intraday rebound, but the overall trend remains downward. After the break below the 144-day moving average, the moving averages diverged into a bearish alignment, and we need to see how far the oversold correction can go—downward momentum has not been fully released.

Intraday strategy: Sell high, buy low

Long positions:
Aggressive approach—buy near current price
Conservative approach—enter in batches around 4310-4340, with a stop loss at 4300
Target 4350-4380

Short positions:
Aggressive approach—enter around 4383, with a stop loss of 3-5 points
Targets sequentially at 4330-4310-4300-4280