#数字资产市场动态 December 30th Gold Technical Review — Opportunities Amidst Consolidation

Yesterday, international gold performance was weak. Starting from 4538.33 at the open, it surged to 4550.19 but then lost momentum, dropping back to 4300.58, and finally closing at 4325.22. This large bearish candle wiped out the short-term rally, indicating a strong correction.

Who are the behind-the-scenes drivers? One is the US housing market showing some signs of improvement — November existing home sales increased by 3.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, reaching a new high since February 2023. As a result, risk aversion sentiment diminishes, making gold less attractive. Another factor is the delay in rate cut expectations. According to CME "FedWatch," the probability of holding rates steady in January is as high as 83.9%, with only a 45.4% chance of a total 25 basis point cut in March. The anticipated easing is not coming as quickly, which is also unfavorable for gold prices.

Looking at the position side, the world’s largest gold ETF (SPDR Gold Trust) increased holdings by 0.86 tons to 1071.99 tons, indicating ongoing demand for long-term allocation. However, short-term speculative funds are cashing out profits, creating obvious pressure.

What does the technical picture say? After breaking below short-term support, gold found some respite at the 20-day moving average. The RSI has fallen from overbought levels, signaling a clearer top. On the downside, the 60-day moving average has been broken, indicating a bearish alignment, and RSI has entered oversold territory. This suggests a potential rebound today, but don’t expect too much — the overall bias remains bearish. Looking at the longer term, the 144-day moving average also failed to hold, with moving averages spreading apart. Attention should be paid to whether a rebound can occur after oversold conditions, as the downward momentum has not been fully exhausted.

Strategy ideas (mainly bearish):

Long positions:
- Aggressive traders can buy at the current price
- Conservative traders can stagger entries between 4310-4340, with a stop-loss at 4300
- Target prices: 4350-4380

Short positions:
- Aggressive traders can enter around 4383, with a stop-loss of 3-5 points
- Target prices: 4330, 4310, 4300, 4280