Staking "Net Outflow" Ends: Can Ethereum Make a Strong Breakthrough?

Title: “Ethereum Staking Key Reversal: Entry Funds Are Twice as Large as Exit Funds”

Author: KarenZ

Source:

Repost: Mars Finance

At the end of 2025, the Ethereum network reaches a critical turning point: the validator “enter queue” reverses and surpasses the “exit queue.”

This means that after months of market cleansing, the amount of funds attempting to stake Ethereum to become validators has far exceeded the amount of funds seeking to unstake and exit.

This change is not just a numerical shift but a market sentiment and network fundamentals indicator, signaling that the prolonged selling pressure has been gradually easing. It also suggests that, driven by factors such as some institutional confidence returning, Pectra upgrades and optimizations, and DeFi leverage unwinding, the Ethereum network is entering a new cycle of enhanced security and capital accumulation.

Ethereum Validator Queue Reversal

According to the latest data from the Ethereum Validator Queue, approximately 739,824 ETH are currently waiting in line to enter the network, with an estimated wait time of 12 days and 20 hours; the exit queue holds only 349,867 ETH, which would clear in about 6 days.

Additionally, the total staked ETH on Ethereum is about 35.5 million ETH, accounting for 29.27% of the total supply, with active validators reaching 98,360.

What is the validator queue? Why is it important?

Under Ethereum’s Proof of Stake (PoS) mechanism, to ensure consensus stability, nodes cannot join or leave at will but are regulated through a “Churn Limit” mechanism.

Currently, the maximum number of validators that can join (activate) or exit per epoch (about 6 minutes and 24 seconds) is set at 256 ETH, equivalent to a processing capacity of approximately 57,600 ETH per day.

· Entry Queue: The queuing channel for staking 32 ETH to become a validator. Growth in this queue indicates strong staking demand and optimistic long-term capital outlook.

· Exit Queue: The queuing channel for requesting to withdraw funds. Growth in this queue usually signals selling pressure, liquidity needs, or deleveraging behavior.

Therefore, the validator queue is not only an indicator of network health but also a barometer of market sentiment.

How did the validator queue change in 2025?

Throughout 2025, the Ethereum validator queue experienced dramatic fluctuations:

· First half to autumn: Multiple record highs in the exit queue, mainly due to institutional rotations, profit-taking, DeFi deleveraging (such as Aave lending rate surges causing stETH liquidation cycles), and security incidents (like Kiln exiting all Ethereum validator nodes in September).

· Mid-September, the exit queue peaked at 2.67 million ETH, with a wait time of up to 46 days.

· September-October: The “enter queue” briefly overtook the exit queue but was soon dominated again by the latter.

· November: The “enter queue” grew back to over 1.5 million ETH, but the “exit queue” once reached over 2.5 million ETH.

· End of December: The “enter queue” reversed, with approximately 739,824 ETH currently waiting to enter the network, and only 349,867 ETH in the exit queue.

Four Core Drivers Behind the December Reversal

This reversal is not accidental but the result of combined forces from capital, technology, and macro environment:

Large Stakes by Treasury Companies like BitMine

Just two days before the reversal (December 25-27), BitMine staked a total of 342,560 ETH (about $1 billion), directly driving the queue reversal.

Moreover, BitMine had previously announced plans to launch a dedicated staking infrastructure—the U.S.-made Validator Network (MAVAN)—in Q1 2026, demonstrating its long-term commitment to Ethereum staking ecosystem.

Meanwhile, another major treasury company, SharpLink, has staked nearly 100% of its ETH, further fueling the inflow momentum.

Despite the current challenges faced by the crypto treasury sector, with some institutions slowing ETH accumulation or even reducing holdings through cases like ETHZilla, the large-scale deployments by players like BitMine and SharpLink largely stabilize the fundamental staking ecosystem of Ethereum.

Pectra Upgrade Enhances Staking Experience

The Pectra upgrade implemented in May 2025 introduced key improvements via EIP-7251: increasing the maximum effective validator balance from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH, enabling reward compounding and validator consolidation. This reduces operational costs for institutions managing thousands of validator nodes and facilitates large capital entry.

Kiln Re-staking Reopens

Kiln exited validators en masse after a security incident in September 2025. While it’s unclear when Kiln will restart staking, data from Beaconcha.in shows Kiln currently holds 1.68% of the Ethereum staking ecosystem.

DeFi Deleveraging Nearing Completion

In June and July, rising Aave lending rates forced liquidation of stETH leverage strategies, causing phased selling pressure. Recently, as deleveraging has gradually cleared, related exit demands have diminished, and market inflows have become dominant.

Institutions Buying on Dips

The market has been adjusting for days, with some institutions optimistic about ETH’s long-term value. Trend Research plans to continue adding $1 billion worth of ETH. On December 25, verified by Ai Auntie and Jack Yi himself, Jack Yi’s Trend Research has a real cost basis of around $3,150 for the ETH accumulated since November, with a current unrealized loss of about $143 million on 645,000 ETH. After an additional $1 billion investment, the average cost of ETH is expected to be around $3,050.

Summary

The reversal of the Ethereum validator “enter queue” surpassing the “exit queue” marks the initial formation of a net inflow pattern since July. This change is more than just a numerical crossing; it is a key signal of market confidence rebuilding. Of course, whether this leading trend can be sustained and stabilized remains to be seen.

Although spot ETFs for Ethereum have not yet shown significant net inflows, on-chain fundamentals are clearly improving. As Joseph Chalom, Co-CEO of SharpLink Gaming, stated this month, the surge in stablecoins, tokenized RWA, and increasing interest from sovereign wealth funds could drive Ethereum’s TVL to grow tenfold by 2026.

Standing at the tail end of 2025, is Ethereum already preparing for the surge in 2026? The answer, only time will tell.