#ETF与衍生品 Seeing Cathie Wood's remarks, I am reminded of the scene from the 2017 cycle. At that time, institutions were still hesitant, retail investors were疯狂, resulting in chaotic capital flows and extreme volatility. Today, the logic has reversed—BTC has become the most liquid safe haven asset, yet it was the first to be hammered, and other coins have followed suit even more severely. This detail is very interesting.

She clearly defined the positioning of the three chains: BTC as the global monetary system and institutional gateway, ETH as infrastructure, and SOL as the application ecosystem. This layered structure actually reflects the real evolution I have observed over the years—from a single asset to a diversified ecosystem. In 2014, we were still debating whether Bitcoin could become money; now, the landscape has completely changed.

The most critical observation here is whether institutions will officially enter through ETFs, which will be the decisive variable in the next phase. I experienced the institutional deployment in 2020, which was still scattered block trades and OTC. If giants like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America truly systematically enter through ETF products this time, it will not just be a simple price increase but a transformation of the entire market structure—from retail to institutional.

Regarding the market bottom after the flash crash on 10/11, I tend to agree. But a bottom does not mean an immediate rally; it usually depends on the real actions of institutions with real money. If ETFs are delayed in launching, this rebound could get stuck at this level. History has shown that policy catalysts and product innovation are often the true triggers for cycle turning points.