2025-12-30 03:10:26

#战略性加仓BTC Precious metals lead the rally, Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase—Echoes of history and clues for the future

In the past few months, an interesting phenomenon has occurred: gold and silver have surged wildly, while Bitcoin has entered a sideways consolidation. Behind this seemingly contradictory trend, there is actually a set of market laws that have been repeatedly validated.

Let's go back to March 2020. Amid the stock market crash, the Federal Reserve opened the floodgates of liquidity. At that time, the flow of funds was very clear—initially bottoming out traditional safe-haven assets. Gold rose from $1450 to $2075, and silver jumped from $12 to $29. During the same period, Bitcoin fluctuated repeatedly between $9000 and $12000, consolidating for a full 5 months. Capital had not yet shifted to the crypto market.

The turning point came in August 2020. Precious metals peaked, and market sentiment began to shift. Funds started seeking higher risk and higher return opportunities—cryptocurrencies became the new target. Bitcoin then skyrocketed from $12000 to $64800, an increase of nearly 5.5 times. The total market capitalization of the crypto market grew nearly 8 times.

And now? It seems history is repeating itself. Gold has already approached its all-time high of $4550, silver surged to $80, and Bitcoin has once again entered a sideways pattern. The large-scale liquidation event on October 10, 2024, somewhat replicates the scene of March 2020. Afterward, Bitcoin fell into a slow oscillation.

But there is a fundamental difference between this cycle and the previous one. By 2026, catalysts will be more intense—liquidity restart, continuous rate cuts, clearer regulatory frameworks, expansion of spot products, and other factors resonating together. The previous cycle relied on liquidity alone to push forward; this cycle is driven by both liquidity and structural optimization.

In other words, the strength of precious metals is not bad news; rather, it is a pre-signal for the crypto market to start its sprint. The moment gold and silver stop rising is when crypto assets will rally again. Bitcoin's current sideways movement is not the beginning of a bear market, but a pause before the next surge.

BTC-2.01%

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FlippedSignal

· 5h ago

Haha, the moment gold and silver peak is our real opportunity, this logic is indeed perfect. --- It's another replay of history, but this time it's truly different. --- Wait, so now that it's consolidating, should we be optimistic? I feel like it might still fall further. --- With so many catalysts in 2026... that sounds a bit too perfect. --- Basically, it's about accumulating coins and waiting for precious metals to peak. This logic was validated in 2020. --- I'm actually bearish on gold and silver when they surge, worried about capital flow diversion. --- Bitcoin is currently like this to prepare for the upcoming sprint, I believe in that. --- The question is, who can determine when gold and silver will stop rising... it's all guesswork. --- Expanding spot products is indeed a new variable, not as simple and straightforward as pure liquidity. --- Consolidation = silence. I like this definition; it's much more comfortable than daily calls for a crash.

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TheMemefather

· 5h ago

Gold and silver peaking is our signal to get in; history really does repeat itself... --- Wait, does this logic mean we should continue to sideways trade now? Then when should I expect to move? --- Catalysts in 2026? Bro, your prediction is way too far ahead. I only care if I can double my investment next year. --- Liquidity restart, rate cuts, clear regulations... sounds good, but the key is when will gold and silver peak? --- I've heard this theory before last year, and now you're still talking about history repeating itself. Is it true? --- Silence is okay, but not for too long; the account can't afford this waiting cost. --- Preliminary signals sound good, but I don't know how many times I'll get cut before the turning point.

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AirdropBuffet

· 5h ago

Wait, is the top in gold and silver a signal for BTC to take off? I need to ponder this logic repeatedly... --- Is it that tired old "history repeats itself" excuse again? Every time it's said like this, what's the result? --- Consolidation is just silence... Alright, then I'll take this as the calm before the storm. --- 2026 catalysts will be intense? Sounds good, but what should I do with the coins I hold now? --- Gold at 80 bucks, silver? Forget it, I still believe in the underlying logic of the old man's coin as reliable. --- I've heard the theory of capital rotation a hundred times, but I just can't bring myself to go all in. Breaking my defenses, that's for sure. --- The moment gold and silver stop rising... do we have to wait until the Year of the Monkey and Horse for that?

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LiquidityWitch

· 5h ago

ngl the liquidity transmutation ritual is already brewing... gold's about to flip and when those dark pools stop accumulating, that's when the real alchemy begins fr

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SilentObserver

· 5h ago

Gold peaks = Bitcoin takes off. I believe this logic. Waiting for gold and silver to stop rising before jumping in. There's really no point now. The story of 2026 is too far away. Just stay alive for now. History repeats itself, but not exactly the same. There are too many variables this time. Let it consolidate sideways. Anyway, I'm not in a hurry.

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GasFeeCryer

· 5h ago

Well, the idea that history repeats itself feels a bit overly optimistic. The surge in gold and silver is indeed a signal, but not necessarily a good one. Let's wait and see when gold and silver peak; that will be the real starting point. The catalyst for 2026... it's a bit too far to talk about now. Who can predict it accurately? A sideways market is just a sideways market; don't try to attach too many stories to it.

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