If you're still fixated on charts and so-called "policy favorable news," you might have already missed the most important signals at the start of 2026. This year's financial situation has no buffer; it's been pushed to the limit. The latest actions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan reveal a dramatic shift in the global liquidity landscape — this is not a minor event, but a major reorganization involving leverage, funding conditions, and market confidence.

As a long-term observer of the crypto market, I have to say that this time the scale of operations is significant. Currently, we are in a strange calm before the storm. The question boils down to two: Have you found a safe haven? Or are you waiting to be swept away by the waves?

**The True Attitude of the Federal Reserve**

Looking at the recent meeting minutes, the Fed says "no rush to cut rates," but the data tells a different story. Initial jobless claims have fallen to 214,000, the labor market remains hot, and economic growth stays resilient. This means that the high-interest-rate policy will not loosen in the short term. For risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, a high-interest-rate environment acts as a continuous pressure valve — it won't explode instantly, but the pressure is always there.

In other words, the Fed's stance determines the pricing logic of global risk assets. As long as they maintain a high-rate framework, the market will find it difficult to see a relaxed easing environment. This is a real constraint on liquidity supply in the crypto market.

**The Awakening of the Bank of Japan**

The story on the Japanese side is more complex. After thirty years of accustomed easing, the central bank is now considering normalization. Once the Bank of Japan truly moves, the pattern of global arbitrage trading will be broken. This will not only impact the yen but also affect capital flows in emerging markets and risk assets worldwide.

**Implications for the Crypto Market**

Ultimately, this is a liquidity story. When major global central banks tighten or consider tightening, cryptocurrencies, as risk assets, are the first to be affected. But precisely because of this, market participants need to reassess their positions, leverage, and risk tolerance. Over-leveraged strategies become especially dangerous in such an environment.

Of course, high-pressure environments often breed opportunities. But the prerequisite is that you survive until that moment.