As the Chinese New Year approaches, short-term market pressure has become a foregone conclusion. In the next 1 to 3 months, we may see several scenarios: a brief rebound, a rapid decline, or sideways consolidation, but the overall trend remains weak.

Looking at the macro environment makes it clear. The US dollar is strengthening, A-shares are approaching the 4000-point mark, and the RMB has appreciated to 6.8 (which means the U.S. dollar is depreciating). None of these are positive signals.

On the surface, there might still be a wave of market activity before the New Year, but what's really happening? Institutions and large investors are cashing out for the holiday. Don't forget, Chinese people make up the majority of crypto investors, and the traditional Spring Festival means big spending—buying cars, home improvements, visiting relatives and friends. Participants who have been invested all year are now cashing out to recover their funds.

The result is: trading volume continues to shrink, and funds keep flowing out. This trend is unlikely to reverse in the short term.

Friends still averaging down and opening long positions should wake up. Instead of dreaming of a big rally, it's better to short at the highs for some steady gains. Otherwise, on the first day of the New Year, you'll really have to empty your wallet to cover losses.