Recently, the interaction between Federal Reserve Chair Powell and the U.S. President has become the most "interesting" power play in the financial world.

Here's the situation: on one hand, there is a desire to aggressively cut interest rates, even threatening to replace the Federal Reserve leadership; on the other hand, there is a firm commitment to the Fed's independence and professional judgment. Behind this game, there is a fundamental disagreement over the future direction of monetary policy.

Imagine this scenario: one side says they want to turn the Federal Reserve into a "private printing press," pursuing the lowest global interest rates; the other side argues that the law prohibits the Fed Chair from being replaced at will, and that rate cuts should be based on inflation data, not just political demands. The result is—intense verbal sparring, but in reality, policy adjustment space is actually limited.

What does this mean for the cryptocurrency market? Very important. The Fed's interest rate policy directly affects the attractiveness of risk assets. If a significant rate cut is actually implemented, liquidity will increase, which could push up the prices of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. But if it's just talk and actual policy remains unchanged, market expectations are likely to fluctuate repeatedly.

The market is now in a "Schrödinger's rate cut" state—hoping for easing policies to support risk assets, but also worried that excessive easing could reignite inflation. If inflation spirals out of control, the Fed may be forced to tighten again, and by then, it will be too late to regret.

So the key question is: how much will the Fed compromise under political pressure? Historically, although the Fed's independence has been challenged, it usually manages to uphold its core principles. This means rate cuts may happen, but the magnitude and pace will be more cautious, rather than an all-out "party."

For cryptocurrency investors, the final outcome of this power struggle will directly determine the asset allocation direction in 2025. Watching the Federal Reserve meetings and policy statements is more important than any technical analysis.