2025-12-30 04:23:48

A few days ago, I came across an interesting data point: the realized profit and loss ratio indicator for Bitcoin has dropped back to 3.16. This number actually has some significance.

Looking back through historical records, in 2014, it took 285 days for this indicator to fall from 3.16 to 1; in 2018, it took 274 days; and last year in 2022, it took 296 days. Although the cycles are similar, the market sentiment reflected behind them is worth pondering.

How is this ratio calculated? It compares the average realized profits and losses of investors over the past 365 days. To put it simply, it shows who made money and who lost money during this cycle, using numbers to tell the story.

During a bull market, this value soars—because many people are cashing out profits at high levels, with winning trades clearly outnumbering losing ones. Conversely, in a bear market, the ratio drops very low, as investors are forced to cut losses in a state of loss, and the market is filled with panic and capitulation.

Using a 365-day moving average instead of daily data helps filter out short-term noise and reveals the true long-term trend. This indicator is quite effective in judging whether the market is overheated (ratio too high) or in extreme panic (ratio too low). In other words, it uses data to reflect the overall profit and loss status of market participants, which is very helpful in understanding where we are in the bull-bear cycle.

BTC-2.35%

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MetaverseVagrant

· 2h ago

This cycle data is really quite extreme, history is just repeating itself Are we going to start a bloodbath again? Feels like it will be hard to endure Why is the 3.16 level so magical, it happens every time There must be many people cutting losses, their mentality has already collapsed The 365-day moving average from this angle is indeed clear, short-term is useless Does it have to fall to 1? How long do I have to wait? Feeling exhausted The market sentiment has already surrendered, now it's just waiting for a rebound signal History cycles are so regular, it feels a bit too coincidental The bottom should be near, or maybe I am just deceiving myself Looking at this data, most people have already been washed out

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HashRateHustler

· 2h ago

3.16... Coming back with this again? Is history just repeating itself like this? --- So those still cutting losses now will have to wait over 270 days to turn things around. --- I've looked at this indicator, but the ones truly making money are still those who ignore this stuff. --- Bull markets surge, bear markets suppress, it feels like a gamble on when the market sentiment will collapse. --- Wait, how come this data is always so coincidentally similar in days... Is it real or fake? --- The 365-day moving average sounds smart, but I still trust my intuition a bit more. --- This 3.16 cursed number, do we really have to go through 285 days of torment again... --- Got it, it's just turning retail investors' pain into data. --- When this ratio is low, isn't that the best opportunity to buy in? The problem is, who dares? --- Another indicator that sounds professional but can't change the fact that I keep losing money.

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BlockchainBard

· 2h ago

3.16 See you again, history always repeats itself --- The sound of cutting meat is about to ring again, prepare yourself mentally --- This data, frankly, is just to see who is still holding on --- The bear market's truth serum, nowhere to hide --- It's time to test faith again --- Tired of cycle theory, but the question is, do we still have bullets in our pocket? --- The 365-day moving average is easy to understand, it’s about who profits and who loses in the long term --- 3.16→1, how long will we wait this time? --- The panic index is at its maximum, and opportunities are also coming

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WalletDetective

· 3h ago

3.16 this number has appeared again, history really repeats itself Are we about to start the long 285-day wait again? So those who cut losses now are all big fools It seems the bear market bottom won't come so quickly History cycles are so reliable, doesn't that mean it's time to buy the dip?

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0xTherapist

· 3h ago

It has dropped again to 3.16. How long do we have to endure this time?

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GraphGuru

· 3h ago

3.16 is back again, will it really drop to 1 this time? --- Historical cycles, but this time it feels different --- More people are going to cut losses again --- Wait, 285 days, 274 days, 296 days... are we saying this time it will be about three hundred days too? --- Data can lie, but market intuition won't --- The realized profit and loss ratio is actually the market's honest truth --- Time to buy the dip again? Or keep waiting and watching --- Rising in a bull market, kneeling in a bear market, cycles just keep repeating --- Using the 365-day moving average to filter out noise, this trick is indeed brilliant --- The process from 3.16 to 1 is just a slaughtering show --- The lower the ratio, the more panic there is. Think about it the other way around—maybe it's time to get in --- The story behind the changing market sentiment, numbers always tell it straight --- Every cycle repeats, but every participant feels this time is different --- Indicators are useful, but ultimately it depends on whether you can maintain your mindset

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