The story of Bitcoin has become increasingly complex over the past two years. On one side, large institutions are talking about a slow bull market driven by institutionalization, depicting Bitcoin as steadily rising like gold to a future of $170,000, or even $250,000; on the other side, strategists are ringing alarm bells, warning that it could potentially drop to $50,000. This divergence among industry giants indicates that the battle over the future of cryptocurrencies is far more intense than we might imagine.

By the end of 2025, Bitcoin surged to a record high of $126,000, then quickly entered a deep correction, with the annual closing price dropping by about 5%. Standing at this crossroads, the top Wall Street institutions have extremely polarized views on 2026, leaving many a bit confused.

Optimists see a "structural bull market" driven by continuous institutional capital inflows, while pessimists warn of a potential "deflationary turning point" in the global economy, which could trigger a major reevaluation of asset valuations.

Such divergent forecasts are indeed rare in Bitcoin's history. Some institutions explicitly state that the crypto market has entered an "institutionalization era," and the traditional four-year halving cycle logic no longer applies. Analysts also warn that Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 in 2026, representing a drop of about 90% from now. Other major institutions base their predictions on the logic that volatility is decreasing and that the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is gradually approaching that of gold, offering an alternative outlook.

Behind this disagreement lies a fundamental difference in understanding of how to price crypto assets and how the institutionalization process will evolve.