#预测市场 After reading this analysis on the risks of market manipulation, it's quite interesting. The core idea is simple: manipulating the market is difficult and expensive, but it does pose risks in low-liquidity environments—an important reminder for those of us following trades.

The most striking data comes from a study of the Iowa electronic market: manipulators invest heavily but often incur losses, demonstrating the market's strong mean reversion ability. What does this mean? In active, highly liquid markets, large traders attempting to push prices up or down find it hard to profit in the long run—markets have their own immune system.

But this also gives me inspiration: when choosing trading counterparts, I should be more alert to accounts that frequently trade in low-liquidity assets and exhibit abnormal price fluctuations. They might not be engaging in genuine trading logic but trying to manipulate prices. In contrast, traders who consistently profit in mainstream assets with clear, reproducible strategies tend to have more controllable risks.

Another detail worth noting: in an era where AI can fake public opinion, even polls become untrustworthy—yet this creates opportunities for market prediction because it requires real capital. This logic also applies to following trades: traders operating with real money have cost constraints on each transaction, making them more credible than those shouting signals randomly.

Next time I review potential trading counterparts, I will pay more attention to their trading liquidity preferences and strategy stability, rather than just focusing on returns.