#预测市场 After reading this article about the risks of prediction market manipulation, I have to be honest—this is essentially a new version of "whale trading" on the blockchain, just dressed up in a more sophisticated way.

Remember that sudden large order on InTrade in 2012? Romney's price jumped from 41 cents directly to 49 cents, then quickly fell back. Back then, we were debating whether it was manipulation; now, the situation is more complex: AI can forge public opinion, large funds can manipulate low-liquidity markets, and mainstream media still broadcast these prices in real-time, unknowingly amplifying the impact of manipulation.

The most heartbreaking part is that even if the manipulation ultimately fails, the "trust breach" it causes is already done. People start to doubt—are these price fluctuations reflecting real information, or is a wealthy individual dumping the market?

So my straightforward advice is: **You can look at prediction markets, but don't treat them as the only reference**. Focus on markets with active trading and sufficient liquidity (manipulation costs are too high), cross-verify with polling data, and be alert if there are obvious deviations. Low-liquidity markets? That's a paradise for manipulators; retail traders entering are just feeding the fish.

In short, any market signals claiming to be "absolutely objective" should be viewed with suspicion. Cross-check multiple information sources—that's the way to survive longer.