#预测市场 This week is indeed a key point for the explosive growth of major projects, from XPL, Falcon Finance to Yield Basis, with a high density. I have sorted out on-chain data and financing backgrounds, and the mechanism design of several projects is worth paying attention to:

The oversubscription of Upheaval reflects the market's expectations for the HyperEVM ecosystem Launchpad—an oversubscription of over 870% indicates that funds are indeed chasing. But the key is whether subsequent trading volume growth can support the Memecoin ecosystem effect under the UIP-3 mechanism, which determines the retention rate after the initial surge.

Yield Basis is supported by the Curve community and endorsed by Egorov. From a $50 million financing valuation to potentially billions of FDV at launch, the pricing logic is clear. However, the actual yield sources of Bitcoin yield protocols—fees and impermanent loss hedging—still need to be observed in real market performance.

Limitless, as a participant in the prediction market track, has a trading volume of $270 million, which is not small. Although there are rumors of wash trading, the endorsement by Coinbase Ventures and Arthur Hayes joining still have reference value. Prediction markets themselves are a track with high liquidity demand.

Goated's data is more solid—$1 billion in bets, 12,000 monthly active users, $2 million net profit, which is supported by real cash flow. GambleFi usually can operate without token incentives, and this token issuance might even have liquidity premium space.

Currently, more funds are chasing "cash flow + mechanism completeness" rather than just concept hype. Oversubscription data looks good, but before participating, it’s still necessary to look at the token release curve and whether the real trading depth can support initial sentiment.