At 3 a.m., a friend who trades macro suddenly sent me a message: "Have you seen the latest meeting minutes from the Bank of Japan?" The moment I opened the file, a chill ran down my spine—the economy that had been dormant for thirty years is truly starting to move seriously.

This is not a gentle hint of rate hikes. The record clearly states: continuous rate hikes after December, with 0.75% just an intermediate step. High-level officials at the central bank have almost explicitly said—those days of negative interest rates are over.

A deeper warning sign is: global liquidity tightening is no longer a one-man show by the Federal Reserve. The Bank of Japan has also started tightening the reins; that familiar arbitrage paradise and low-volatility playground is rapidly disintegrating.

On my friend's desk are two screens. One shows anxious market trends, while the other constantly refreshes on-chain data and market signals. He slowly said, "Judgment is more valuable than anything right now—being able to distinguish between emotional swings and truly verifiable information."

Why is this time truly different? Four realities in front of us:

**Inflation is still a problem**—Japanese prices have exceeded the 2% target for nearly four consecutive years, yet real interest rates remain negative, silently devaluing money.

**The yen continues to weaken**—a weak exchange rate has pushed up import costs, and officials at the central bank have publicly stated they will accelerate rate hikes.

**Arbitrage capital is fleeing**—funds relying on low-interest yen borrowing to buy assets globally are pulling out of Japan overnight.

**The rate hike roadmap is set**—the central bank has clearly said that current rates are still far from "neutral," and the rate hike path is only halfway done.

The logic behind this is simple: when the once abundant liquidity sources start to shrink, the market's risk pricing methods will inevitably be reshuffled.