Cantor Fitzgerald: "Crypto Winter" will strengthen institutional investors - ForkLog: cryptocurrencies, AI, singularity, the future

# Cantor Fitzgerald: “Crypto Winter” Will Strengthen Institutional Investors

The digital asset market is likely entering the early phase of a prolonged downturn. However, this will only be a prelude to a more stable and institutional stage of industry development, according to Brett Knoblauch, an analyst at investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald.

He stated that the segment is in the early phase of a “winter,” following Bitcoin’s four-year historical cycle. About 85 days have passed since the peak price. Pressure on quotes could persist for months. A test of the company’s breakeven level around $75 000 is not excluded.

The current decline differs from previous ones in the absence of mass liquidations and structural failures. Now, the market is shaped not by retail traders but by institutional players. Knoblauch pointed to the growing gap between token prices and actual infrastructure development, especially in the DeFi and RWA sectors.

The volume of tokenized real-world assets has tripled over the year, reaching $18.5 billion. Cantor Fitzgerald expects this figure to exceed $50 trillion by 2026 as on-chain settlements by banks are adopted. Decentralized exchanges, especially in the perpetual futures segment, will continue to take market share from centralized platforms, even amid overall trading volume declines.

The analyst also noted growth in prediction markets. The volume of bets in the sports segment exceeded $5.9 billion. Robinhood, Coinbase, and Gemini have already entered this niche, offering more transparent mechanisms compared to traditional bookmakers.

The main risk remains the value of the first cryptocurrency. Bitcoin’s price is only 17% above Strategy’s average purchase price. Falling below this level could scare market participants, although Knoblauch doubts that the company will start selling assets.

According to the expert, next year is unlikely to show explosive growth but will lay the foundation for long-term technology adoption.

Opinions on the inevitability of the downturn

Several experts believe that the usual four-year cycle of the first cryptocurrency is broken. The reasons cited include the launch of spot ETFs, easing regulation in the US, leadership changes at the Federal Reserve, and increased global liquidity.

LVRG Research director Nick Rakk stated that the historical periodicity began to break down in 2025. Steady demand from funds and corporations has smoothed volatility and prevented a deep crash typical of previous years. The analyst expects consolidation but forecasts continued growth in 2026.

Similar views are held by Grayscale and Standard Chartered. The former expects a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, while the latter calls the cycle theory “invalid” and sets a Bitcoin target at $150 000.

10x Research head Marcus Tilen believes that digital gold entered a bear market at the end of October 2025, becoming the first risky asset to react to economic slowdown.

PlanB’s analyst noted the psychological factor: sales are provoked by “traumatized 2021 market veterans” who, out of habit, expect a decline two years after the halving.

Why is bitcoin not pumping?

Because 50% is selling (OGs traumatized by 2021, technical investors looking at RSI, 4y cycle fans expecting a bear 2y post halving) while the other 50% is buying (fundamental investors, tradfi, banks).

Epic battle … until sellers are out of ammo. pic.twitter.com/er7upg25RV

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) December 16, 2025

Expert Alex Wacy added that the cycle is not broken but stretched: the absence of an altcoin season and euphoria “causes boredom,” but does not mean the end of growth.

The 4-year cycle isn’t broken.

Expectations are.
Altcoins bled. No euphoria. No altseason. Just boredom and pain.

While stocks made ATHs, AI went vertical, gold outperformed.
Cycles don’t always end. Sometimes they stretch.

Most already quit.
When this flips, they won’t be on…

— AlΞx Wacy 🌐 (@wacy_time1) December 23, 2025

Recall that in December, traders estimated the probability of a “crypto winter” at 7%. Later, CryptoQuant analysts warned of the start of a bear market.