Listen to me, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes will be released at 3 a.m. today, and this could be the turning point for whether the crypto market can break the deadlock in the past two months.

Have you ever wondered why Bitcoin and Ethereum have been stuck in a range of 85,000-95,000 for nearly two months? Frankly, the entire market has been holding its breath waiting for the Fed's stance. This December's meeting minutes are different from previous ones; they aim to reveal the real disagreements among officials. Inflation or unemployment, should we tighten or loosen? The extent of these disagreements directly determines the future policy direction.

My judgment is that this set of minutes is likely to lean hawkish. The Fed's internal divisions have long been present: some are terrified by the rebound in inflation and are resolutely against rate cuts; others see unemployment rising and are eager to loosen monetary policy immediately. Rumors have already circulated that this meeting's minutes will emphasize that current interest rates may still lack sufficient strength. For crypto assets? In the short term, it's definitely bearish.

Next, you should pay attention to two key points.

First, there is indeed a short-term downside risk. Once hawkish signals are confirmed, the dollar will appreciate, and risk assets including cryptocurrencies will be affected. If Bitcoin falls below the support line of 83,821-86,284, the next test level is around 80,641. Friends with high leverage should be especially cautious tonight.

Second, this could be a good opportunity for long-term positioning. Notice that in December, the amount of coins transferred into exchanges by large holders has decreased by nearly half— they are also waiting. Once the minutes trigger a selling wave and prices are hammered down, it could become an opportunity for us to build positions gradually. Focus on projects with real application ecosystems, and avoid chasing concept coins.

The market is about to move, be prepared.