#数字资产市场动态 Beginner's Guide to Contrarian Trading in Contracts: These four tactics I’ve used for a full two years. I can't say my win rate is 100%, but they can help you avoid 90% of common pitfalls.👀

After experimenting with various complex strategies, I realized that sometimes the simplest methods are the most sustainable. Today, I’ll lay out my trading framework from the past two years to see if it offers any insights.

**Level One: Choosing the Right Coins Is Critical—Don’t Fight Cold Coins**

Sideways-moving coins are the most frustrating; funds tend to flow into more active assets. My selection logic boils down to two points:

• Coins that have shown a price increase ranking within the last 11 days, indicating at least some major players are paying attention
• Coins that have fallen for more than 3 consecutive days are a direct pass; trying to bottom fish here is like catching a flying knife

Opportunities in the crypto space are always present, but your capital is fixed. This principle must be understood clearly.

**Level Two: Use Monthly Charts to Determine the Main Trend—MACD Golden Cross as an Acceleration Signal**

Daily charts are too easily manipulated by wash trading. The truly reliable technical signals are at the monthly level:

• MACD forms a golden cross above the zero line, indicating the initial establishment of a medium-term bullish trend
• Accompanied by moderate volume increase, which significantly enhances trend stability

Monthly charts don’t lie because the cost for market manipulators is too high.

**Level Three: Timing with Daily Charts—The 60-Day Moving Average Is the Entry Baseline**

Even in an uptrend, reckless chasing is dangerous. The key is waiting for both of these conditions to occur simultaneously:

• Price retraces to near the 60-day moving average (a deviation within 3% is safer)
• Trading volume on that day exceeds the average of the previous three days by more than 50%, indicating genuine buying strength

Entering at this point can significantly improve your success rate.

**Level Four: Exit in Phases—Let Profits Run, Greed Is the Biggest Killer**

Stop-loss must be decisive; take-profit should follow a rhythm:

• When floating profits reach 30%, sell 1/3 of your position to lock in some gains
• If the remaining position rises to 50%, reduce another 1/3, and move the stop-loss to break even
• If the next day’s close falls below the 60-day moving average, close all remaining positions. Don’t expect a rebound.

**Finally, a Word on Human Nature**

The hardest part of this strategy is never the technical judgment but whether you can stick to it:

• After a quick loss, don’t dwell on it; as long as the trend remains intact, you can wait for a pullback to re-enter
• When facing losses, be even more ruthless—strict stop-loss is essential to protect your capital and prepare for the next opportunity

$ETH At the end of the day, the market is never short of opportunities to make money; what’s scarce is the ability to stay alive until those opportunities arrive.