Cryptocurrency Winter Warning? Cantor Fitzgerald Institutional Transformation Report Reveals the True Market Outlook for 2026

Notable investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch pointed out that Bitcoin may be entering a multi-month downtrend cycle, with the market potentially preemptively entering a “crypto winter” in 2026. Unlike previous cycles, this adjustment may not be accompanied by large-scale liquidations or systemic crashes, as the dominant market forces are shifting from retail investors to institutions.

Cycle Forecast: Winter Is Coming, But Its Nature Is Different

In its latest report, Cantor Fitzgerald explicitly states that the crypto market may be entering a new downward phase. According to analyst Brett Knoblauch, Bitcoin has declined approximately 85 days from its recent peak and may continue to face pressure in the coming months. Notably, Bitcoin’s price once fell below $87,000 and is currently fluctuating around this key level.

The report specifically highlights that Bitcoin’s price could even test the average cost basis of approximately $75,000 for Bitcoin holdings companies. This level is seen as an important barometer of market sentiment.

Market Transformation: From Retail Sentiment to Institutional Logic

The fundamental difference from previous cycles lies in the change of market dominant forces. Cantor’s report emphasizes that the current market is being led by institutions rather than retail investors, and the “divergence” between token price performance and on-chain fundamentals is widening. The shift in the nature of institutional capital is moving market pricing mechanisms from a “narrative-driven, sentiment-based” phase into a “liquidity-driven, macroeconomic” new stage. The source of new demand in the market is shifting from emotion-driven retail investors to institutional investors focused on asset allocation and risk budgeting.

This structural change is reflected in specific data: by the end of 2025, the total market capitalization of the global crypto market will surpass $4 trillion for the first time, and the total assets of crypto-related ETFs will exceed $130 billion.

On-Chain Development: DeFi and Asset Tokenization Growing Against the Trend

Despite token prices being under pressure, on-chain activity demonstrates strong vitality. Decentralized Finance (DeFi), asset tokenization, and crypto infrastructure continue to advance. Physical asset tokenization (RWA) is a core manifestation of this trend. By 2025, the total value of on-chain tokenized RWAs (excluding stablecoins) has grown to approximately $33 billion. Tokenized U.S. Treasury products have led this growth, driven by institutional products such as BlackRock’s BUIDL fund and Franklin Templeton’s BENJI platform.

Another notable trend is the evolution of decentralized exchanges (DEXs). Industry forecasts indicate that the perpetual contract DEX market will continue to consolidate, with platforms like Hyperliquid expected to maintain market dominance.

Regulatory Turning Point: Policy Clarity Lowers Barriers for Institutional Entry

The passage of the U.S. “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” (CLARITY Act) is seen as a key turning point. The act clarifies when digital assets are considered securities or commodities and delineates responsibilities among major regulatory agencies. In July 2025, the signing of the “Genius Act,” which establishes a comprehensive federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, further clarified the regulatory landscape. This clarity significantly lowers the barriers for institutional entry into the crypto market. For institutional capital, uncertainty itself is a cost, and regulatory ambiguity often entails unquantifiable tail risks.

Globally, Hong Kong’s “Stablecoin Regulations” officially took effect on August 1, 2025, bringing fiat-backed stablecoins into a licensed framework. Japan also proposed in its FY2026 tax reform outline to gradually position crypto assets as “financial products that contribute to national wealth formation,” exploring ways to reduce related tax rates.

Future Outlook: Structural Opportunities in the Winter

Cantor’s report concludes that although 2026 may not usher in a new full bull market, the institutionalization, compliance pathways, and on-chain infrastructure of the crypto industry are gradually solidifying amid price cooling. Industry research indicates that 2026 will see several clear trends in the digital asset sector. Asset tokenization will accelerate across the board, and on-chain listing of securities will become a significant milestone.

Additionally, stablecoins as the infrastructure for deposits and withdrawals will undergo comprehensive upgrades, accelerating integration into the traditional financial system. Banks and large financial institutions will leverage stablecoins to innovate products and expand business. The integration of AI and blockchain will also accelerate, with AI Agents expected to evolve into autonomous on-chain decision-making entities capable of executing complex financial operations within smart contract frameworks.

Investor Strategies: Market Guide for Navigating Potential Winter

For Gate users, understanding the structural changes in the market is more important than simply predicting price movements. Focus on core assets like BTC, ETH. Industry surveys show that even amid a global liquidity rebound, capital attention will remain concentrated on these high-quality core assets. Shift some focus from short-term price fluctuations to on-chain fundamentals. Metrics such as DeFi protocol usage, RWA growth rate, and on-chain stablecoin liquidity may better reflect the true health of the industry than token prices.

As staking enters the “institutional era,” digital asset trusts and ETFs are becoming mainstream. Investors can gain exposure to crypto assets through these compliant products while reducing operational and custodial risks.

When Bitcoin again falls below $87,000 by the end of 2025, the market’s focus will no longer be solely on price charts. The average cost basis of Bitcoin held by Strategy—around $75,000—may become a new test of market sentiment. Beneath the surface of low prices, institutional investors continue to accumulate through compliant channels, DeFi protocols’ daily trading volume quietly surpasses historical highs, and RWA tokenization scales expand at triple-digit annual growth rates. The crypto market is like an ecosystem undergoing metamorphosis; the apparent winter silence conceals vigorous underground roots. This structural transformation may be far beyond what price fluctuations alone can reveal.