Recently, MetaPlanet's news has been flooding the screens. The company entered over 35,000 BTC at the high of $107,000. Now the price has fallen to $87,000, with an unrealized loss of 18.75%, equivalent to $700 million. It looks alarming, and many people are starting to worry if the market is about to have problems. But a closer look at on-chain data shows that things are not that simple.

Institutional positions trapped at high levels indeed sound bad, but from a trader's perspective, this actually provides some interesting information. The result of last year's FOMO-driven buying is now on display. The most important thing is to observe the subsequent market reaction. Over the past week, Bitcoin exchange balances have been decreasing, with nearly 20,000 BTC flowing out. What does this indicate? Large holders are accumulating, not engaging in large-scale selling. Meanwhile, the number of long-term holder addresses is increasing, showing that market confidence remains quite firm.

Looking at the macro environment, the Federal Reserve is signaling rate cuts, and the US dollar is under pressure, which is naturally favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin. In the short term, panic is inevitable—after all, institutional losses can easily trigger retail investors to follow suit and sell off—but on-chain indicators show that selling pressure isn't that strong. Interestingly, bottom-fishing addresses are active, indicating that smart money is taking the opportunity to position.

Looking back, the $30,000 bottom in 2023 and the high near $100,000 earlier this year both sent clear trading signals. The current situation also aligns with that logic: in the short term, Bitcoin may test the $85,000 support level again, but based on fundamentals and on-chain performance, a collapse is unlikely. This bull market is not over yet; the correction might actually be an opportunity to get in.

Trading is most risky when driven by news sentiment. Institutional unrealized losses are a fact, but that doesn't mean the market is doomed; it could instead be a trap for shakeouts. On-chain data tells a different story. The current position should be considered a bottoming phase, with the next target around $120,000.

Don't panic. Hold your positions steady and wait for the data to speak.