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The recent Federal Reserve minutes from the December meeting reveal an interesting detail — although officials ultimately voted in favor of a rate cut, the decision was far from unanimous.
The minutes show that even those advocating for a rate cut acknowledged that this decision was made after weighing various risks. Some even explicitly stated that they might have supported keeping rates unchanged. In other words, the move to cut rates almost didn't happen.
More notably, there were clear disagreements among participants regarding the economic outlook. Some officials believe that after this rate cut, the U.S. economy may need to maintain the target rate range for a period of time. This suggests that the rate-cutting cycle may be coming to an end, at least in the short term, with no further reductions expected soon.
Most interestingly, there was rare divergence of opinions among officials on whether to continue easing or to start tightening monetary policy. This situation has occurred in two consecutive meetings, indicating significant differences within the Federal Reserve regarding the current economic outlook. For investors, this policy uncertainty often means increased market volatility.