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Honestly, newcomers to the crypto world are most easily confused by those flashy indicators. MACD, KDJ, Bollinger Bands... looking around, they're all just data, and it's hard to tell which one is truly needed.
Having navigated this space for many years, I’ve come to believe that simplicity is power. The market moves incredibly fast, and the trend can change at any moment, but one rule remains constant—trends are your friends. To earn steadily, instead of being overwhelmed by indicator ceilings, it’s better to master these three core tools I use daily: moving average systems, trading volume, and support and resistance levels. Today, I’ll share my private experience from these years, hoping to help you avoid pitfalls.
**Moving Averages: See the True Market Direction Clearly**
My chart always displays three moving averages: 5-day, 20-day, and 60-day. Don’t underestimate these three lines; their power is significant. Short-term is the 5-day, mid-term is the 20-day, and long-term is the 60-day. These three dimensions help frame the market’s trend.
In an upward trend, the scene is very clear: the 5-day moving average is above the 20-day, and the 20-day is above the 60-day. This is the classic "bullish alignment," with lines climbing one after another. Prices mostly stay close to the 5-day MA; any pullback to the 5-day or 20-day MA is a golden entry point. Remember Bitcoin’s rally this spring? That pattern was at play—every dip near the moving averages led to a rebound, and that’s how it kept climbing.
Conversely, in a bearish trend, it’s the opposite. The 5-day MA is below the 20-day, which is below the 60-day. Prices are firmly below the 5-day MA. At this point, any rebound to the 5-day MA should be met with caution—reducing your position is the wise choice.
The most frustrating is a sideways market. The three MAs entangle, and prices jump up and down without direction. My approach is to wait patiently—don’t move if you don’t have to—until the market decides where it’s headed.
**Volume: The True Pulse of the Market**
Moving averages tell you the direction, but volume is the popularity voting for that direction. A trend without volume support is often false—Einstein couldn’t save such a market.
If prices are rising but volume is shrinking, that’s a red flag. For example, sometimes altcoins surge wildly, but trading volume is sparse—usually the market maker is just playing guerrilla tactics. Jumping in at this point could turn you into a bagholder. Conversely, even if prices are only slightly rising, but volume is very active, the credibility of the move is much higher.
**Support and Resistance: The Market’s Psychological Defense Lines**
This is the easiest and most practical tool. In an uptrend, a certain level becomes a stronghold for buyers—support. In a downtrend, a level where sellers consistently resist is resistance.
These levels are important because many traders focus on these key prices. At these points, market psychology is most intense. You’ll see prices repeatedly testing these levels—either breaking through or bouncing back—rarely passing through gently.
Using these three tools together is enough. Don’t get overwhelmed by complicated indicators; returning to the simplest market principles often gives the clearest view.