2025-12-30 21:22:11

Ladies and gentlemen, the most talked-about topics recently are absolute statements like "Ethereum will definitely fall below 3000" or "It will crash to 2500." But having navigated this market for years, I’ve heard too many such assertions, and in the end, they all fade away like a passing cloud. Instead of being driven by these emotions, it’s better to calmly examine what the real technical and capital fundamentals are telling us.

To be honest, 99% of the current market voices are driven by emotion. The true determinant of victory or defeat hinges on the 2800 level. This is not some mysterious prediction, but a fact that can be seen from multi-dimensional data.

**What is the technical analysis really saying?**

Right now, the range between 2850 and 2880 acts as the upper limit of resistance, while 2800 holds as the weekly support level. The key detail is that the 50-week and 100-week moving averages are converging in this area, forming a natural pivot point. What does this imply?

If the price volume breaks through 2850 and stabilizes on the 30-minute chart, a large number of short stop-loss orders will be triggered, and the price is likely to surge toward 2900 or even 2950. Conversely, if it falls below 2780, the next line of defense shifts down to the 2720-2750 miner’s cost zone. If the situation worsens further, it might even test the previous low at 2620.

**What does on-chain data reveal?**

This is the most interesting part. Over the past week, large holders have net increased their Ethereum holdings by over $2 billion, yet the supply on exchanges has dropped to the lowest point of the year. What does this data indicate? On the surface, it looks like a price suppression and accumulation at low levels, but behind the scenes, it’s a carefully orchestrated layout in the derivatives market.

Looking at data from a major derivatives platform, the open interest in put options at $2700 to $2750 surged by 300% within a week. Think about it—this is clearly an institutional trap, aiming to hunt down leveraged retail traders holding full positions with put options.

Those who insist on a sharp crash often operate under this game logic. During sideways consolidation, most people feel tormented, but for the market makers, it’s a psychological game—seeing who will break first, and whose stop-loss orders will be precisely hunted.

ETH1.04%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

10 Likes

Reward
10
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

LiquidationHunter

· 7h ago

Oh no, it's the same old story again. Big institutions are playing chess, everyone. Institutions are accumulating and suppressing prices, retail investors are shouting about a crash. Who would believe it and lose money? Is 2800 really that critical? It feels like there's always a key point every time. The surge in put options by 300% is indeed interesting. The hunting mode has been activated. Sideways trading is a psychological battle. As retail investors, we've been worn down to numbness, haha. Veterans in the crypto circle are still different; they rely on these data details to make a living. A true contrarian indicator, the most frequently heard opinions are often the opposite. If 2850 can't be broken, then we have to watch 2720. It's that simple and brutal. Large investors are secretly positioning, while small retail investors are still shouting orders. The disparity is huge. The trend setter in this wave of market movement is playing psychological games. We are just pawns. But looking at it this way, the bottom signal is indeed a bit interesting.

View OriginalReply0

ChainWallflower

· 7h ago

Institutions are playing chess, retail investors are looking at the cards. To be honest, I'm already tired of this routine. --- The 2800 level is indeed incredible, but I'm more curious about where that $20 billion actually went. --- Put options surged by 300%? Ha, it's time to hunt stop-loss orders again. --- Sideways trading is the true test of human nature. Those who can't hold on will be harvested. --- Instead of listening to those shouting "must break below," look at what the big players are doing—that's the real truth. --- Once 2780 breaks, it will head straight to 2620. That's pretty desperate. --- On-chain data tells the real story. The fact that exchange reserves are at a new low directly explains everything. --- The 50-week and 100-week moving averages are converging, which is a trap point. --- Why are retail investors always the ones caught in traps? Because we're always a step behind. --- Honestly, this market depends on who can hold out longer—just a psychological game.

View OriginalReply0

GetRichLeek

· 7h ago

Having gone through so many times the hurdle at 2800, I just want to ask, what about the support at 2850 you mentioned last time? I was caught in this analysis when it was at 2900, now I’m down 30% and asking what I should do. A painful lesson, every time I think this time the on-chain data is different, but I still get cut. Institutions are indeed deploying, but the problem is that we retail investors always miss the right point. During sideways trading, every support level feels like a trap. Sigh. I also saw that 300% put option position, so now I dare not do anything rash, just waiting to see how they play it. Your analysis is logical and well-founded, but I still don’t believe it. After all, the last time you analyzed like this, I ended up bottom-fishing into a trap. Feeling like I’m about to be played to death by psychological games again, already set stop-losses and waiting for the worst. If I get precisely hunted again this time, I might really quit the scene. I can’t take this torment anymore.

View OriginalReply0

GateUser-74b10196

· 7h ago

Ha, another 2800 key point theory. What's different this time? --- I'm tired of the institutional accumulation routines. If it was going to crash, it would have already. They're just hesitating now. --- $2 billion worth of additional holdings sounds impressive, but the real mystery lies in the exchange's record low reserves. --- Open interest in put options has surged by 300%. Is this paving the way for a big drop, or is it a reverse trap to lure more buyers? --- Honestly, the repeated mention of the 2800 level makes me think it won't break so easily. --- Sideways trading is just a psychological game. I just want to see who can endure this boring period. --- Predicting every obstacle day after day is pointless; it's better to just watch the trend and speak with action. --- The big players' layout in the derivatives market suggests there's still hope for the price. --- On-chain data is indeed interesting, but who can clearly interpret the true intentions behind the data? --- It's not just retail investors who are driven by emotions; big influencers are gambling too.

View OriginalReply0

SigmaBrain

· 7h ago

Damn, it's the same old spiel, I've been hearing this for three years haha --- Is 2800 really so sacred? Feels like I heard the same thing last year --- Big players accumulating and pushing down prices has been a common tactic for ages. According to this logic, retail investors will never win --- Basically, institutions are playing psychological warfare, and we can't even understand what's happening --- I laughed when I saw the options volume surge by 300%. This kind of trick still works pretty well on retail investors --- Instead of studying technical analysis, it's better to check if your risk management is in place --- Wow, they're starting to talk about moving averages again. It always ends up reversing every time --- Raising 2 billion USD in accumulation, they really treat retail investors like fools --- Consolidation can be tough, but getting hunted down is also real, haha --- I just want to know who can accurately predict the 2800 level. Probably just a dream

View OriginalReply0