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The trading activity has been relatively low over the past two days, with only two short positions in LIT and STRK. Today, I want to organize my thought process and lessons learned from these two trades.
First, let's talk about STRK. My judgment at the time was that BTC might surge to around 90,000. Based on past experience, this should be a key level, so I chose to establish short positions on some less popular coins. STRK was already in a clear downtrend at that point, and shorting with the trend went smoothly, ultimately leading to a successful take-profit and exit.
Next, LIT. This one is a bit regrettable. I opened a short position at an average price of 3.38 and eventually exited with a loss. But the turning point was last night—LIT dropped to 2.24. If I had held on a little longer, I could have caught this wave of decline.
My reasoning for shorting LIT was actually quite solid. From a fundamental perspective, LIT faces fierce competition in the Perp sector. Currently, Hype is the leader in the sector, with Aster close behind. A large part of LIT's trading volume comes from wash trading and fake orders, so the actual transaction situation is questionable. Additionally, I anticipated that the airdrop distribution would soon begin, and generally, project teams tend to dump tokens before an airdrop to clear their positions—this is a common market consensus.
From a technical standpoint, LIT accumulated a lot of liquidity below, and the downtrend was gradually opening up. Considering the timing of the airdrop, it was theoretically easy for the price to be pushed down to absorb that liquidity.
I set my stop-loss at 3.51, where liquidity above was relatively sparse. After waking up, I found the price had surged to around 3.7, triggering my stop-loss. When the price fell back, I was worried about a second surge, so I ultimately decided to exit.
This trade taught me two lessons. First, never place orders before sleeping. Expecting a surprise after sleep by exposing yourself to unknown risks is not worth it. Second, for long-term strategies, patience is essential. Building positions gradually is the right approach; you can't use long-term thinking for short-term swings. These two trading styles must be kept completely separate.