2025-12-30 22:20:39

Recently monitoring WCT's market, I found an interesting arbitrage opportunity. There is about a 1.2% spread between spot and quarterly futures, with the 4-hour RSI on the futures side soaring to 76.23, indicating strong bullish sentiment, and the funding rate is likely to be pushed higher.

The arbitrage idea is actually simple: short the overvalued quarterly futures, buy an equal amount of spot to lock in the price difference, and wait for positive funding rate returns. After accounting for bilateral 0.2% fees, the static spread's annualized return is quite attractive.

But there are also many issues. If the liquidity of the spot suddenly shrinks, the hedging costs will rise sharply; in extreme unidirectional markets, margin on the futures side also needs to be a concern. These are risks that must be taken seriously.

So the current attitude is to keep observing. After all, just having spot data isn't enough; we need to wait for specific futures data and sufficient liquidity. As long as the spread stays above 1% and the hourly trading volume remains above 500M, and the conditions are met, it can be considered for entry. The current price of 0.09 USDT isn't a strong signal yet, so patience is advised.

Disclaimer: Personal opinion, not investment advice.

WCT19.83%

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OnChain_Detective

· 8h ago

yo hold up... that 1.2% spread's got me running pattern analysis on this one. RSI at 76.23 screaming overbought but liquidity metrics? lemme pull the data first before we even think about shorting. spotted too many rugpull signatures with this exact setup ngl

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AirdropAnxiety

· 8h ago

1.2% spread sounds good, but few actually dare to get in, and liquidity dries up and collapses. What are you waiting for? A 500M trading volume can't be held at all, it's almost like gambling. Honestly, the RSI of 76 is a bit fake; the bulls are all paper tigers.

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SmartContractDiver

· 8h ago

1.2% spread sounds good, but when it comes to actually executing, liquidity can vanish in an instant. I've seen too many painful lessons. Honestly, a RSI of 76 is quite high and should raise caution. Excessive bullish sentiment makes us reflect on whether we're just the bagholders. Setting the 500M trading volume line seems a bit arbitrary. When the market turns, this data becomes unreliable. The divergence between spot and futures looks tempting, but once decoupling occurs, costs can skyrocket, leading to arbitrage turning into traps. Not worth it. 0.09 USDT indeed isn't very attractive. Better to wait and see. I admire your patience; that's the core competitiveness for long-term survival.

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PoolJumper

· 8h ago

1.2% spread sounds good, but how many can actually benefit? Liquidity shrinks and everything gets blurry. --- RSI 76, what’s the point of a bullish rally? Be careful of the bagholders. --- Let’s talk again when the spread returns to above 1%. It’s too risky to enter now. --- WCT at this price level isn’t very attractive. Let’s wait a bit longer. --- The margin pressure on the futures side is indeed a trap; spot hedging isn’t that smooth. --- A 500M trading volume requirement is quite strict; it might take a long time. --- Annualized returns look good, but managing the risk hedging is really troublesome. --- Positive funding rates are profits, but in extreme market conditions, it’s all for nothing. --- 0.09 isn’t strong enough? I think it still has to fall further. --- Arbitrage sounds simple, but in practice, it’s full of pitfalls.

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OvertimeSquid

· 8h ago

A 1.2% spread sounds good, but in reality, there's often a zero missing when entering the market, and liquidity disappears instantly. --- The RSI soaring to 76... is probably a signal before the usual profit-taking, I've seen it many times. --- Wait until it stabilizes above 500M before considering entering. Right now, it's just paying trading fees to the exchange. --- An attractive annualized return is tempting, but the margin pressure makes me a bit cautious when I think about it. --- The 0.09 price level isn't very attractive; better to lie low a bit longer. --- Maintaining a spread above 1% is easier said than done; any big player selling can wipe it out completely. --- When spot liquidity suddenly evaporates, the hedging costs can scare you to death. I've seen a few crashes like that. --- Not entering the market might actually be the smartest choice; anyway, a steady profit won't run away. --- The contract RSI soaring so high, bullish sentiment is strong... Usually, it indicates something—you all know what.

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