2025-12-30 22:24:06

Based on the benchmark point of December 31, the core approach to Bitcoin operations throughout 2026 boils down to four words: steady accumulation. This is not simply going all-in, but a rhythmical strategy of phased buying and selling.

**Core Trading Discipline**

First, adhere to three bottom lines: do not exceed 10% of a single position, set stop-loss at $68,000, and stay away from high leverage. At the same time, closely monitor three signals—ETF net inflow data, Federal Reserve policy trends, futures position changes, and GBTC premium movements. Only through the interaction of these indicators can true market nodes be identified.

**Q1 Market Outlook (January-March)**

It is expected that Bitcoin will fluctuate between $70,000 and $100,000, with $75,000 and $86,000 serving as important support levels, and $95,000 as the first resistance. How exactly to operate? When the price retraces below $75,000 and the ETF’s daily average net inflow exceeds $50 million, you can build positions in three batches, each controlling about 3%, with a total position not exceeding 9%. Conversely, if the price breaks through $95,000 but CME longs start reducing their positions and futures premium declines, it’s time to gradually reduce holdings—reduce by 2% for every 5% increase, and buy back when the price falls below $90,000. For risk control, if the price drops below $68,000 with increased volume, or if ETF net outflows continue for three days, stop-loss must be executed.

**Q2 Gradual Position Increase (April-June)**

Entering the second quarter, the range broadens to $80,000 to $110,000. $80,000 is the support line, and $105,000 becomes the new resistance. The timing for increasing positions at this stage is during a correction to the $80,000–$85,000 range, and when the long-term holder SOPR indicator exceeds 1—indicating market sentiment remains healthy. A signal to reduce positions is if the price surpasses $105,000 but encounters regulatory negative news or ETF inflows slow significantly. If the price falls below $78,000, proactively reduce to half positions and observe to prevent being trapped.

Remember, the brilliance of this logic lies in dispersing risk across multiple points each quarter, rather than betting on a single direction.

BTC1.21%

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digital_archaeologist

· 6h ago

No matter how clever the words are, it all depends on whether the market gives us face, haha.

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Layer2Observer

· 6h ago

Data-driven frameworks are good, but this type of prediction has an old problem—assuming that market participants are all rational. Let's look at the data; historically, the correlation between ETF inflows and prices is not as strong as imagined.

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SatoshiChallenger

· 7h ago

Interesting, another genius who believes they can time the market precisely has appeared. Data shows that the last time someone made such detailed predictions, their accuracy after six months was 22%. What about historical lessons? In 2017, someone also listed a similar "sense of rhythm," but how did that turn out? I'm not trying to be sarcastic, but anyone who has experienced two cycles knows that the market is always here to slap down plans. Ironically, the analyses that look down on all-in strategies often end up failing in the execution of "gradual position building."

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