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Recently, a series of actions by the Federal Reserve are quietly changing the market landscape. This week, a major announcement broke—The Fed plans to buy $220 billion in short-term government bonds over the next 12 months, averaging about $40 billion per month. What is the real driving force behind this? The financial system's reserves are running low and need replenishing.
But that's just the surface. The minutes of the meeting reveal deeper insights: decision-makers have shifted to a dovish stance, eager to cut interest rates, waiting only for inflation data to signal the time to act. CME's forecast shows an over 85% chance of holding rates steady in January next year, but by March, the probability of rate cuts suddenly surges. What does this mean? Policy easing is already on the horizon.
The internal logic within the Federal Reserve is clear: Although the US economy is still experiencing moderate growth, the risk of inflation remains tilted upward, and reserve levels have dropped to a "sufficient" critical point. The shift to a neutral policy now serves to prevent further deterioration of the labor market while paving the way for upcoming stimulus measures. A more pragmatic consideration is that a government shutdown could drag down short-term GDP, so preemptive liquidity injections are a form of cautious foresight.
This macro shift is stirring undercurrents in the crypto space. On one hand, the US government remains strict on DeFi regulation, with the $25 million attack on the Ethereum blockchain still under review, and regulatory attitudes have not relaxed; on the other hand, some unusual market operations have emerged—5.85 million EIGEN mysteriously transferred out and back on a DEX platform, seemingly manipulated by large traders for short-term gains, which directly amplifies market volatility.
The key issue is that the "water tap" opened by the Fed not only influences traditional financial assets but also alters market expectations for liquidity. The crypto market is highly sensitive to macro policies; once expectations shift, capital flows will follow suit. Currently, there is a dual dilemma: a new bull market is brewing, but the risk of a bubble re-igniting is equally present.
What are your thoughts on this wave of operations? Share your honest opinions in the comments.