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Bitcoin Morning Bearish Analysis#DrHan2025年终公开信
The 1-hour K-line chart clearly establishes a bearish pattern this morning. After reaching a local high, the price quickly retreated. Subsequent rebounds have been consistently pressured by previous resistance levels, making it difficult to break through. A small double-top pattern has fully formed on the hourly chart, and the current price has broken below the neckline of the double-top, a key support level, indicating that the short-term downtrend is fully confirmed. During the rebound, trading volume has also decreased in tandem, with divergence signals between volume and price highlighting a lack of buying strength. This round of rebound is merely a short covering move, with no new funds entering to support the market. Coupled with the previous sharp decline with increased volume, it confirms that market selling pressure remains strong and persistent. Without effective buying support, the price is likely to experience a rapid downward move.
Technical indicators also signal a strong bearish trend. The RSI has quickly fallen from the overbought zone and continues to trend downward, indicating that bullish momentum is exhausted and completely fading. The MACD histogram continues to narrow, with the fast and slow lines approaching a death cross, signaling increasing bearish momentum. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and the price has been trading below the middle band, solidifying a weak and volatile pattern. Overall, the short-term downside risk far exceeds any potential upside.
Operational Core Trading Plan
Short positions should be taken on rallies, with entry zones locked between 89000-90500. Set stop-loss at 90800 to precisely avoid false breakouts. The immediate target below is the key support level at 86760. Be sure to monitor volume closely; only enter when rebound volume is weak and upward momentum is lacking. If the price reaches the 86760 support and fails to hold, stop-loss can be moved down to the cost basis to continue capturing further downside potential.$BTC