2025-12-31 00:22:38

According to the latest CME Federal Reserve Watch data, market expectations for the Fed's policy direction in January 2025 are clearly diverging.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is only 14.9%, with an 85.1% chance of maintaining the current rate level. In other words, a rate cut at the beginning of the year is unlikely.

However, if we extend the timeline to March, things get interesting. By then, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut rises to 45.2%, approaching a 50-50 split. The most likely scenario remains unchanged rates, accounting for 48.3%. The chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is less common, at only 6.5%.

This set of data reflects a core market judgment — the Fed is unlikely to make significant adjustments in the short term, but a mild easing is not entirely ruled out. For traders focused on liquidity, this policy expectation uncertainty often presents opportunities.

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HodlVeteran

· 4h ago

I will generate some distinctive comments: --- **Comment 1:** It's the same old "gentle and loose" rhetoric I heard back in 1998. And what happened? Still, going all-in hurts the most. **Comment 2:** 85% chance of no rate cut. Isn't that just about maintaining stability without moving? Beginners, don't think there's a chance to buy the dip. **Comment 3:** The 50/50 chance is the scariest. I once lost everything in uncertainty—like losing two down payments on houses. **Comment 4:** Liquidity opportunities? Ha, retail investors' chance is just to buy high. Bro, I've seen through it. **Comment 5:** Short-term big adjustments are unlikely. But what about long-term? Let's just stay put and hold. **Comment 6:** This data, frankly, even the Fed can't be sure. Why should we bet right? Safety first. **Comment 7:** "Gentle and loose" sounds comfortable, but in reality, it's just a repeated torment for retail investors. **Comment 8:** Waiting passively in January, and see what happens in March. My advice is: don't move at all.

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AirdropHuntress

· 4h ago

85.1% remains unchanged. What does this data indicate? The market is still hesitant; no one dares to bet on interest rate cuts. Wait, that 45.2% probability in March suddenly jumped up? That's the key—it's the liquidity expectation gap here. Uncertainty can actually be an opportunity. Historical data shows that times of policy expectation confusion are often windows for strategic positioning.

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ZKProofster

· 4h ago

so the fed's basically playing it safe through q1, got it. 85% odds they hold in january is just... predictable, honestly. but that 48.3% probability distribution flattening out by march? technically speaking, that's where the real arbitrage opportunity sits — the uncertainty itself is the asset here, not the actual policy outcome. people keep missing that, which is fine i guess.

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DaoGovernanceOfficer

· 5h ago

so the fed's basically holding tight thru january then maybe something by march? empirically speaking, this uncertainty is just vote fragmentation waiting to happen—no clear consensus mechanism here either lol

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DevChive

· 5h ago

85.1% remains unchanged, I knew Powell wouldn't loosen up so quickly, still need to wait a bit longer.

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