Recently, I saw a message in the backend where a friend, upon noticing the decline of the bond market MOVE index, went all-in on copycat coins and even mortgaged their house. Honestly, this kind of thinking is very dangerous—not because of a lack of action, but because of a fundamental misunderstanding of market signals.

Let me ask a question first: When you look at the market, besides watching Bitcoin and Ethereum candlestick charts, do you also pay attention to data like the bond market, the US dollar index, and global liquidity? Among retail investors I’ve encountered, about 90% don’t. This is the core difference between retail investors and institutions—large funds position themselves based on global market data, while retail investors only focus on their immediate territory, making it easy to get caught in traps.

Today, I want to discuss a very influential but often overlooked indicator in the crypto market—the bond market’s MOVE index. Many people hear this term and get confused; in fact, it’s just the volatility index of the bond market. When the MOVE index rises, it indicates increased market anxiety about bonds’ outlook; institutions tend to withdraw funds from risk assets and move into safe assets. When the MOVE index falls, theoretically, risk appetite should rebound, but that doesn’t necessarily mean crypto will rise.

Why? Because you’re ignoring a key variable—the outflow and inflow of large funds are not synchronized. A decline in the MOVE index only shows that bond risk is easing, but where do these released funds go? Into stocks, commodities, or crypto? It depends on the overall economic outlook, policy guidance, and valuation levels of risk assets at that time. Blindly thinking that a falling index equals crypto rising is essentially confusing correlation with causation.

The most common mistake retail investors make is to go all-in on a single signal without considering the market’s multi-dimensional risks. Such operations have a much higher chance of leading to losses than to sudden wealth. It’s recommended to develop the habit of analyzing multiple data points across different timeframes to avoid some obvious pitfalls.