Last night, the US stock market experienced another downturn, but this three-day decline was somewhat mild—Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P all fell less than 0.5%. Tech giants showed some weakness, and the A-shares followed with a slight smile. Interestingly, precious metals suddenly gained strength, with silver spot prices jumping 5.74%, and silver futures soaring 7.88%. Gold futures and spot prices didn't rise much, sending a clear signal: the market is searching for a balance point between "hedging + offense."

Today marks the final battle for the 2025 A-shares, and everyone is hoping for a positive close, mainly for psychological comfort. But honestly, today's gains and losses won't create much ripple unless there's a significant fluctuation. Currently, the market is tightly held by large funds, making out-of-control moves unlikely. The ten consecutive days of gains look impressive, but seasoned investors know the truth—no real profit has been made. In fact, over the past three days, there have been more declines than rises. The indices are stuck at high levels, with no momentum to accelerate upward, and the profit-taking effect has faded. It might be better to see a sharp drop to activate market sentiment, which could help dispel the expectations and fears of ten consecutive gains, strengthening the market's resilience. Rising now would add pressure after the holiday, while a decline could be beneficial for the post-holiday market. We should objectively view today's rhythm, with stability being the key.

How to play the chessboard? First, look at the positives: the RMB exchange rate broke 7.0 yesterday! This is a potential major positive, likely to attract foreign capital into A-shares. But pressure is also evident: although the Shanghai Composite looks lively with ten consecutive days of gains, the total increase over ten days is only about 3.67%. This is a typical "index fake rally, individual stocks lagging" scenario—over the past three days, the number of stocks rising versus falling has been stuck at 3:7. Many retail investors' holdings are still under pressure. This "index gains but no real profit" situation is indeed uncomfortable. So, there's no need to worry excessively about the ten-day rally, nor should we celebrate too early.

The most unpredictable part today is whether the main players will play the old trick of "dip to lure more buyers." Think about it: if the market opens high and surges, retail investors will be scared to chase. But if they first push down a bit in the morning to test the waters, they can scare out panic sellers, just like yesterday—when a big fund entered at the low open to buy the dip, then pushed the market higher. This not only shakes out weak hands but also attracts fresh money, achieving a two-in-one effect.

In terms of sectors, focus on three directions: first, the precious metals concept driven by silver futures; second, airline stocks benefiting from RMB appreciation; third, semiconductors. Avoid chasing stocks that have already surged for several days—be cautious of main players using the "finalization" narrative to offload positions.

Based on observations, the probability of the index closing higher again today is quite high, which would give the final battle some face. Of course, what matters most is the actual market performance, not superficial appearances. To balance both, a solid mid-range positive line is preferable; otherwise, it might just become a short-term peak. If the market remains stagnant, at least a pullback is needed to create room for subsequent operations. Stocks are already switching between highs and lows, and sector rotations are accelerating. In this environment, aggressive trading for the holiday isn't advisable. Instead, it's better to get ahead of the curve by looking for low-entry or lurking opportunities, and then aim for substantial profits when the market surges later.