Recently, Bitcoin's performance has indeed been a bit sluggish—hovering around $88,000 with repeated fluctuations, and it has yet to break through the $90,000 barrier. Honestly, maintaining such stability with low trading volume is already quite good.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released its meeting summary, which is the real event influencing the market. The officials' stance was very clear: the main driver behind rising inflation now is tariff policies. More painfully, they believe that inflation will be difficult to bring down to the 2% target in the short term.

But what’s more worth paying attention to isn’t inflation itself, but the signals coming from the labor market. Hiring efforts are clearly weakening, and companies are controlling costs. This reflects not good news—possibly increased economic uncertainty or companies preparing for worse scenarios. Coupled with structural issues like declining immigration, aging populations, and decreasing participation rates, the labor supply continues to shrink. This indicates that the US economy isn’t as robust as many imagine.

However, Federal Reserve officials remain optimistic about growth through 2026. The key is monetary policy—if inflation continues to decline into 2026, further policy adjustments would make sense. But for now, they’ve decided to hold steady, with most officials preferring to wait for more data. What does this mean? The possibility of a rate cut in January is basically nonexistent, and any real adjustments might not happen until March.

Looking back at Bitcoin’s on-chain data, the turnover rate is significantly lower than on normal trading days. In plain terms, institutions and quantitative funds are on holiday, and participation has noticeably decreased. During such times, price movements more accurately reflect the true sentiments of retail investors rather than large capital players manipulating the market. Although the psychological barrier at $90,000 does create upward pressure, the overall stability of the price is quite good, indicating that market sentiment hasn’t deteriorated.

From the chip distribution perspective (URPD indicator), the overall pattern remains quite healthy. However, it may still take some time to fully establish a new bottom. Interestingly, those investors who were trapped at high levels earlier are now surprisingly calm, with no signs of panic selling—this mindset is precisely what helps keep the price stable.