Just finished reading the latest December FOMC meeting minutes, and the conclusion is very clear:

By January 2026, rate cuts are basically hopeless.
It's not a market sentiment issue,
It's because the signals in the minutes are too straightforward.

1. The December rate cut was actually "forced"
The minutes reveal a very key detail:
👉 Many officials who voted in favor of the rate cut in December didn't actually want to cut.
Their real concern wasn't inflation,
but—
the tail risk of employment losing control.
In other words:

That 25bp is not a "trend reversal"

But a compromise to hedge risks

What does this mean?
👉 The December rate cut is not replicable.

2. The Fed is actively "breaking the illusion"
The second very obvious attitude shift in the minutes:
👉 The Federal Reserve is deliberately dispelling the market's illusion that "inflation will naturally decline."
In that December rate cut,
there was indeed a bit of luck involved:

Inflation might slowly go down on its own

No need to be too aggressive, and it can return to 2%

But this minutes almost signals a "new chapter":

Reaffirming that 2% is a hard target

No longer giving any psychological anchor to "self-healing inflation"

This is actually a recalibration of market expectations:
Don’t expect easing to happen automatically.

3. The most easily overlooked but most critical point
There’s also a technical but extremely important move in the December minutes:
👉 Launching RMP + lifting the SRF cap
In plain language, it means:

Under the premise of no rate cuts,

First, replenish the water in the financial system

The meaning of this step is very clear:

I’ve already laid out a liquidity safety cushion,
So in January, I can fully "pause" with peace of mind and watch the data.

This is not tightening,
But laying the groundwork for a "pause" in rate cuts.

4. Overall judgment: a pause in January is almost a default option
Looking at all three points together, the logic is very straightforward:

✅ The December rate cut was a forced compromise, not a trend

✅ The Fed is actively suppressing optimistic inflation expectations

✅ Technically, liquidity has already been injected into the system in advance

Therefore, the conclusion is simple:
Unless one of two extreme situations occurs before the January meeting:
1️⃣ Inflation data shows a "significant" and continuous decline
2️⃣ Employment suddenly worsens noticeably, forcing a risk management rate cut
Otherwise—
👉 Pausing rate cuts is the default option.

The market is still trading "hope,"
But the minutes are already trading "reality."
Next,
It's not about "whether they will continue to cut,"
But:
How long will it take for the market to accept this answer.