Recently, I've received a bunch of questions, and the core meaning is pretty much the same: "The MOVE index has fallen, can I start buying the dip now?" Honestly, this question is a bit naive. Many people have been in the crypto space for so long, yet they are still easily fooled by surface phenomena and haven't learned to see through the essence.

Let's start with the MOVE index. This metric measures the volatility of the bond market—the higher the number, the more panic there is in the market; the lower the number, the more stable investors believe the bond market to be. It sounds like low volatility is a good thing, but there's a trap: low volatility doesn't mean no risk. Sometimes, it’s actually "calm before the storm." Especially now, as the crypto market and bond market are closely linked, every subtle change in the MOVE index can trigger a chain reaction in the crypto market.

So why is a decline in the MOVE index actually a signal that big funds are quietly positioning themselves? Just look at recent capital movements. According to institutional data, top hedge funds globally made an interesting adjustment in the past week: they reduced holdings in short-term bonds while increasing holdings in long-term bonds. This move seems ordinary, but what does it imply? They are betting that long-term interest rates will fall, meaning they are preparing for a potential market loosening. At the same time, these institutions are quietly increasing their crypto allocations through channels like Grayscale.

Simply put, when the MOVE index falls and the bond market appears "calm and peaceful," smart money is already positioning itself. This is not a signal to buy the dip, but a sign that large funds are preemptively staking out their positions.