Entering the New Year countdown, Bitcoin continues to fluctuate around 88. In a low liquidity environment, such a trend is still a relatively smooth transition.

This morning, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed several key signals. In the first half of next year, tariff negotiations may once again push up inflationary pressures, making it difficult to return to the 2% target in the short term. Meanwhile, labor market data has been less than expected, and the resilience of the economic fundamentals does not seem as strong as previously optimistic estimates.

The minutes show that some members believe that it is necessary to wait for subsequent labor and inflation data to accumulate before deciding whether to start cutting interest rates. This implies a higher probability that the January policy meeting will keep rates unchanged. The overall direction still points to easing, but the specific timing and magnitude need further observation. If there is no action in January, the next window will be until March.

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's position accumulation around 87 has further strengthened. The range from 845 to 87 has accumulated over 1.7 million coins, and on-chain sentiment remains relatively stable. The market's breakout direction only lacks a strong catalyst at the moment. However, considering that liquidity will be even thinner during the holiday period, this catalyst may only appear after the holiday.

Looking at a longer timeframe, the current trend is quite similar to the historical patterns from February to April this year and August to October last year. Continuation of range-bound oscillation is almost inevitable. Without new news catalysts, holding above 83 to 87 is already a good performance. On this New Year's Eve, liquidity hits a bottom, and we hope the market can pass through smoothly.