2025-12-31 02:29:28

2025 Cross-Year Trading Week Notice——US Initial Jobless Claims and EIA Crude Oil Inventories Data are about to be released one after another. These two data points are key to determining the short-term direction of gold and crude oil.

First, look at initial jobless claims. The previous value was 214,000, with market expectations of 220,000. The numbers may seem small, but it’s important to understand—if the actual data exceeds expectations, it indicates employment pressure, and the Fed’s rate cut expectations will heat up, which is a big positive for gold; conversely, if the data is below expectations, gold prices may face a correction pressure, and the current resistance at 4380 could be even harder to break through.

The EIA crude oil inventory data is more complex. The previous figure was an increase of 405,000 barrels, but the market generally expects a decrease of 2.3 million barrels this week—quite a difference. If the actual data meets expectations, oil prices may rebound; but if the inventory decrease falls short of expectations or continues to increase, downward pressure on oil prices will significantly intensify. Inventory data from Cushing and strategic petroleum reserves will also influence the market.

Currently, gold is fluctuating between 4300 and 4380, while crude oil is at a sensitive point in the supply-demand battle. Once these data are released, it’s very likely to be the moment to break the sideways trend. It is recommended to strictly control positions, set stop-losses, and be prepared for volatility.

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LongTermDreamer

· 2h ago

It's another beginning of the year, with data bombarding us one after another...

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Deconstructionist

· 2h ago

It's the unemployment benefits and EIA causing trouble again. These two data points are really competing to see who can mess things up more, haha.

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SchrodingerGas

· 2h ago

It's the same data game again—initial jobless claims and EIA inventory reports. Basically, it's about whether market expectations can be beaten by reality. The small gap between previous values and expectations often determines the critical point of direction, similar to our on-chain arbitrage judgment in the gas war—hidden in weak signals are great opportunities. The resistance at 4380 for gold feels like it will break sooner or later; the question is how to break it. If you ask me, instead of obsessing over specific numbers, it's better to look at whether the supply and demand sides' equilibrium has truly shifted. That's what rational expectations should be aligned with. Strict position control is correct, but honestly, if the data comes out as expected this week, the sideways movement should end. At that point, trading costs and slippage will be the real killers. As always, there is no absolute certainty—only relative advantage.

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SchroedingersFrontrun

· 2h ago

Are these two data points really decisive? It feels like speculators are just making up stories every day.

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AmateurDAOWatcher

· 2h ago

The data for the New Year is out, and it’s probably going to be another roller coaster. Gold and crude oil all depend on the US’s mood—really exhausting. I’ve said it before: when unemployment benefits exceed expectations, gold prices skyrocket; otherwise, they crash—it's that simple and brutal. Crude oil is so tricky. The expected gap of 2.3 million barrels is huge, feeling very risky. Once the inventory data is released, it’s either a celebration or a sharp drop—no middle ground. I’ve been watching the 4380 resistance level for a long time; it still feels too tough. Only if unemployment benefits explode could it break through strongly. Balancing tight positions and good stop-losses sounds easy, but honestly, staying calm at that moment is hard. The oscillation range is just there to torment traders. I bet five bucks that this week’s market will explode—the EIA data is the real bomb.

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