#预测市场 Prediction markets may seem fair on the surface, but they are actually highly vulnerable. Recent analysis indicates that once AI-generated fake public opinion combined with market manipulation tactics are deployed, the consequences could be dire.

In simple terms, there are three key issues: First, low-liquidity markets are easily driven by large sums of money—one trader can manipulate prices with a big buy or sell; second, media reports tend to amplify these price movements, leading the public to mistakenly believe that the market reflects genuine public sentiment; third, even if the manipulation itself has limited impact, the spread of distrust can cause significant damage to the entire political information ecosystem.

History has seen similar incidents—attempts in 1916, 2012, and 2024. The crucial lesson is: market manipulation may not necessarily change election outcomes, but it can alter public perception of the elections.

To prevent this, the core measures are fourfold: First, media should only report prices from high-liquidity markets and avoid low-liquidity ones; second, platforms need to establish monitoring systems to detect fake trades and abnormal fluctuations; third, transparency must be increased by publishing order book details so everyone can see clearly; fourth, regulators must make it clear—manipulating election prediction markets is illegal.

Prediction markets are valuable tools that can complement polls in an AI-saturated era. However, the key is to build strong defenses; otherwise, they become breeding grounds for a trust crisis.