#美联储利率政策 Seeing Williams' recent statement, what flashes through my mind are the several key turning points I’ve witnessed over the years. The hesitation on the eve of the 2015 rate hike, the persistence during the 2018 balance sheet reduction, the rapid shift after the 2020 pandemic—each of the Federal Reserve’s policy tweaks has marked a watershed in the crypto market.

After this 25 basis point rate cut, saying "the next step is still uncertain" sounds cautious, but the logic behind it is quite clear: the combination of a slowdown in employment and easing inflation has already sent a signal of easing. I’m not so much focused on Williams’ words, but rather on how he weighs the changing of these two objectives. A cooling labor market should normally cause concern, but paired with continued decline in inflation expectations, this duet turns into a rhythm of "we can still loosen a bit more."

The period of digesting tariff shocks is worth pondering. If inflation truly gets absorbed by the economic system as he expects next year, then the January meeting will likely still have room for another adjustment. Historically, whenever the Fed enters a rate-cut cycle, the asset allocation sentiment begins to shift—risk appetite rises, and the list of beneficiaries of liquidity easing gets updated.

Of course, he specifically emphasized "it’s still too early," and that phrase shouldn’t be overlooked. It’s a typical way of leaving room for maneuver, indicating that data fluctuations are still under observation. Having gone through so many cycles, I’ve learned one thing: what the Fed fears most is not making decisions, but being forced to change their stance by the market. So, this kind of uncertainty in wording precisely shows that they are closely monitoring every economic movement.

The next phase depends on how employment data and inflation figures evolve. History tells us that such easing windows usually don’t last too long.