The Great Cycle – The Royal Road of Ordinary Traders

Success in the crypto market doesn’t come from catching every wave, but from ignoring most of the noise and still seizing truly valuable opportunities. After more than ten years in the market, I realize a paradox: unsuccessful people are not because they are less intelligent, but because they are too diligent… in the wrong places. They look at the price charts daily, analyze every 5-minute candle, chase hot news, and follow “hot tips.” Meanwhile, those who survive long-term and make steady money seem very “lazy”: they don’t trade often, don’t chase trends, only act when the big cycle gives clear signals. I. Why Should Ordinary Traders Abandon Short Timeframes? The biggest disadvantage for individual investors in crypto is not knowledge or skills, but information asymmetry. When you read a “good” news, insiders have already taken their positions long before. You are at the end of the information chain, but still hope to outrun whales – that’s an illusion. On small timeframes (15 minutes, 1 hour): Prices are easily manipulatedFake breakouts happen constantlyAlgorithms, bots, and full-time traders dominate Conversely, weekly and monthly timeframes are where: Big money leaves real tracesNo single force can sustain a “performance” for long-termMarket trends reflect the collective will of the market I used to be addicted to scalping, thinking I could “eat every pulse.” After a few months: Fees + slippage erode profitsTime-consuming, mentally exhaustingAnd most importantly: missing the biggest waves The harsh reality is: 👉 On small timeframes, you are fighting machines 👉 On larger timeframes, you have a fairer playing field II. “Big Cycles Are the Best Foundation” – How to Understand Them Correctly? Many investors fall into the “fundamental analysis” trap: Whitepapers you read may be outdatedThe project team you trust might just be a facadeOn-chain data can be manipulated But big cycles do not lie. Each breakout on weekly/monthly charts is the result of real money, real decisions. Identifying major trends (is so simple it’s almost boring): Uptrend: higher highs and higher lowsDowntrend: lower highs and lower lows My system is very simple: Weekly: confirm trendDaily: find entry points For example with Bitcoin: Weekly: MA stacking in an uptrend (Short-term MA > Long-term MA)Price breaks old highsDaily: wait for price to retrace to MA20 or support zone → split buy orders Advantages: Follow major trendsNo FOMOResistant to short-term fluctuations 👉 The simpler the strategy, the more durable III. Why Is “Avoiding Small Gains and Large Losses” So Difficult? Because it goes against human instincts. Profits → want to close immediately for certaintyLosses → want to wait, hope to recover Common results: Small gains – big losses My painful lessons: 2020, BTC from 3,800 to 5,000 → I sold out out of fear → missed the entire rally to 60,000Another altcoin, -20% but I didn’t cut → only exited after -90% Since then, I have strictly adhered to: Profits: let gains run, only cut when trend breaksLosses: cut quickly, max -2% of account per trade Treat stop-loss as a business expense, like rent. Without it, you cannot survive long-term. IV. Technical Analysis: Weapon or Double-Edged Sword? Techniques are not wrong; users are. Deadliest mistake: 👉 Using technicals to guess tops and bottoms On small timeframes: Most signals are trapsJust one shake-out and stop-loss hits On larger timeframes: Fewer signals but higher qualityTo fake them costs enormous money I only use 3 tools: MA: identify trendVolume: confirm money flowRSI: reference overbought/oversold Most importantly, it’s not about indicators, but about: When I am wrongWhen the trend ends For example: Enter: weekly trend clearly up + daily retracement to supportExit: price breaks below MA60 or reversal pattern on weekly V. How to Build a Major Cycle Trading System for Ordinary People Just four steps:

1. Identify Main Trend (Week) Only go long in a clear uptrendDowntrend → stay out or very light
2. Choose Entry Points (Day) Wait for retracement to supportNever chase tops
3. Clear Stop-Loss & Take-Profit Stop below support 2–3%Expected profit ≥ 2 times risk
4. Capital Management Max -2% of account per tradeCalculate position size based on stop-loss, not emotions This system isn’t flashy, but it helps you: Avoid 80% of trapsSurvive long enough to catch luck Conclusion: From “Guessing” to “Following Rules” It took me nearly ten years to understand: The market doesn’t need you to be right; it rewards discipline and patience. The greatest maturity of a trader is: To give up the obsession with “predicting tops and bottoms”To accept probabilistic thinkingTrade as a system executor, not a gambler In the past, I stayed up all night watching charts, my account shrank. Now I check charts once a day, sometimes only weekly, and make decisions, with much better results. It’s not that I am smarter; it’s that I know where I am not good – and avoid those games. In crypto, everyone looks at the same chart. What makes the difference is not information or indicators, but psychology and discipline. In a market where everyone wants to get rich quickly, those who accept to get rich slowly are the ones who go the farthest.